LET`S TRAVERSE THE ECONOMIC FOG IN THREE WAYS
Global markets have become more erratic than before. Several events and data such as US nonfarm payroll report, slumping oil prices, weak US dollar, upcoming EU referendum of the United Kingdom, migrant crisis, and recent killings have aggravated to uneasiness in the markets and among investors, which resulted in economic fog. While we do not expect this to go away anytime soon, we can cruise through the gloomy picture of the global economy in three methods.
Focus on the income. What the consumers say and earn have less significance at this rate. Refer to the income growth instead, as wages become the most vital element of income. Changes in personal salary have been considered the largest determinant of changes to retail sales. Ironically, the relationship between consumer confidence and retail spending has dwindled. The bottomline is people will keep spending as long as the salary rises.
Monitor the US dollar. For the last two years, US manufacturing has been degenerating. Mild overseas expansion and sharp decrease in capital expenditures by energy and mining entities have aggravated the decline. Let’s add the greenback to the mix since 30% of the growth rate in industrial output is attributed to the level of the dollar index. But there is a tinge of hope on payroll data this month, which can halt the Federal Reserve from increasing interest rates and weaken the currency eventually.
Take cue from the indicators. Economies have become more complicated than ever and susceptible to external shocks. Hence, there is no guarantee we should rely on such data to assess future growth although some figures have led to overall growth in the past. Still, growth is anticipated to stay upbeat in the future.
At this juncture, uncertainties are still rooted in the markets around the globe. Therefore, global economic progression is not in order… just yet. Not-so-good events and data remain, plaguing different industries as well. But in case things turn around, the world economy may experience growth gradually.
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