Monday, 28 September 2020 
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
20:00
FOMC Member Loretta Mester Speaks
Medium
Tuesday, 29 September 2020 

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

An indicator of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo, excluding such volatile item as fresh food.

This report includes the BOJ's projection for inflation and economic growth. It's the primary tool the BOJ uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

M4 is referred to as "broad money" or simply "the money supply". It reflects cash outside banks (i.e. in circulation with the public and non-bank firms) + private-sector retail bank and building society deposits + Private-sector wholesale bank and building society deposits and Certificate of Deposit.

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.

The amount of extra funds that a sector has available to provide for either direct and indirect lending purposes to other similar counter-parts.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation.

Measures the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, including resources not produced in Canada. Also known as the Producer Price Index, the RMPI is an early measure of inflation. Although producers may not pass on changes in raw material prices to consumers immediately, the index will record these cost pressures before they reach the end consumer and affect inflation rates. The headline figure is the percentage change in the price index from the previous month and year.

The index includes prices for raw materials like mineral fuels, vegetable products, animal and animal products, wood, ferrous materials, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals.
 

Since July 2015, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis has started publishing preliminary estimate of goods trade balance. This release will be 4-7 earlier than trade balance data. Growth in the reading favors the US dollar.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

The S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles - FOMC voting member Oct 2017 - Jan 2032. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles - FOMC voting member Oct 2017 - Jan 2032. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction New Zealand . Building Consents, or Building Permits, are issued when a building project has been authorized to begin construction. Since Building Consents serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects Building Permits suggests optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, housing indicators are popular leading indicators due to the multiplier effect that they have on the rest of the economy. The headline is the percentage change in new consents for the month.

Note: When looking deeper into the report it is important to analyze in detail what the type of projects the consents are for, as Building Consents include residential housing as well as 'big-ticket' non-residential buildings and government projects that can create large gyrations in the report month to month.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:30
National CPI Sep 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Low
01:30
National CPI ex Fresh Food Sep -0.3% -0.3% -0.2%
Low
01:30
Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food & Energy Sep -0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Low
01:50
Summary of Opinions
Low
09:00
CPI Sep -0.5% -0.4% -0.4%
Low
10:30
M4 Money Supply Aug 0.8% m/m; 13.4% y/y 1.1% m/m -0.4% m/m; 12.1% y/y
Low
10:30
Mortgage Approvals Aug 66.3K 72.0K 84.7K
Low
10:30
Net Lending to Individuals Aug 3.9bln 5.2bln 3.4bln
Low
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Sep 1.11%; 1.35
Low
11:00
Consumer Confidence Sep -13.9 -13.9 -13.9
Low
14:00
CPI Sep -0.1% m/m; 0.0% y/y -0.1% m/m; -0.1% y/y
Medium
14:00
Harmonized CPI Sep -0.2% m/m; -0.1% y/y -0.1% m/m; -0.1% y/y
Medium
14:30
Industrial Product Price Index Aug 0.7% 0.6%
Low
14:30
Raw Materials Price Index Aug 3.0% 6.2%
Low
14:30
Goods Trade Balance Aug -79.3bln -81.8bln
Medium
14:30
Wholesale Inventories Aug -0.3% -0.1%
Low
15:00
Case-Shiller 20 City Jul 3.5% 3.6%
Low
15:15
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks
Medium
15:30
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks
Medium
16:00
Consumer Confidence Sep 84.8 90.0
High
19:00
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks
Medium
19:00
FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles Speaks
Medium
21:00
FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles Speaks
Medium
23:45
Building Permits Aug -4.5% -1.4%
Low
Wednesday, 30 September 2020 

Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion. The report also breaks down results into parts of the economy, giving a detailed picture of the consumer climate in Great Britain. GfK Consumer Confidence is one of the most closely watched surveys. The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term Consumer Confidence averages. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change. On a global basis, the indicator is very important for the economy, as it reflects consumers sentiments which formed the major portion of Great Britain GDP. The survey is conducted monthly by GfK, a market research organization, on behalf of the EU commission.

Change in the price of goods purchased at BRC-member retail stores. Leads the government-released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, but has a narrower scope as it only includes goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. This data is usually released 1 day before the Bank of England interest rate decision. Full reports are only available to BRC subscribers.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

The results of the ANZ Bank Business survey held among businesses nationwide.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

It is a major indicator of the strength of the non-manufacturing sector of China.

Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows.

The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession. The figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole. For this reason Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia's economic course. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month.

The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. When the PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. Flash figures are released approximately 6 business days prior to the end of the month. Final figures overwrite the flash figures upon release and are in turn overwritten as the next Flash is available. The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is concluded from a monthly survey of about 430 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

The Housing Starts figure reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. The number of housing starts is an indicator of the strength of Japan 's construction sector and a leading indicator for the direction of the economy as a whole. Housing Starts respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, promptly slowing at the onset of a recession and growing at the beginning of an economic boom. A high Housing Starts figure is generally bullish for the economy, as it indicates overall economic growth.

The headline figures are the year on year percentage change in value of housing starts, and the value of all houses started for construction that year.

This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

The change in capital expenditures made by private firms. Businesses only invest when they are optimistic about future economic growth and expect a profitable return on their investments. Because of this, increased capital expenditures usually reflect a higher level of consumer demand that induces companies to expand their productive capacity. Current Business Investment usually allow for higher GDP in the future. For these reasons Business Investment may lead economic growth.

The headline number is the percentage change in investment from the previous quarter.

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of German Gross Domestic Product. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information current conditions in the housing market. The Index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices.
 

Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted goods expenditures by consumers.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany.

The ZEW-CS Indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS). The indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.

Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change measures the change in the number of newly employed people in the USA, excluding workers in the farming industry.

A comprehensive measure of Canada's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the US economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight into the driving forces of the economy.

GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.

On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter's end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most.

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

Tends to have a mild impact because much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessmen.

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction.

Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:01
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Sep -27
Low
01:01
BRC Shop Price Index Sep -1.6% -1.4%
Low
01:50
Retail Sales Aug -3.3% m/m; -2.8% y/y 3.2% m/m; -3.2% y/y
Low
01:50
Industrial Production Aug 8.7% m/m; -15.5% y/y 1.5% m/m; -10.0% y/y
Low
02:00
ANZ Business Confidence Sep -26.0 -26.0
Low
03:00
PMI Manufacturing Sep 51.0 51.3
High
03:00
Non-Manufacturing PMI Sep 55.2 54.6
Medium
03:30
Private Sector Credit Aug -0.1% m/m; 2.4% y/y -0.1% m/m
Low
03:30
Building Approvals Aug 12.0% m/m; 6.3% y/y 0.1% m/m
Low
03:45
Markit Final Manufacturing PMI Sep 53.1 53.1
Medium
07:00
Housing Starts Aug 0.828M; -11.4% ; -10.0%
Low
07:00
Leading Indicators Jul 86.9 86.9
Low
08:00
GDP 2 quarter -20.4% q/q; -21.7% y/y -20.4% q/q; -21.7% y/y
Medium
08:00
Current Account 2 quarter -21.1bln -1.4bln
Low
08:00
Business Investment 2 quarter -31.4% q/q; -31.3% y/y -31.4% q/q; -31.3% y/y
Low
08:00
Import Price Index Aug 0.3% m/m; -4.6% y/y 0.0% m/m; -4.1% y/y
Low
08:00
Retail Sales Aug -0.9% m/m; 4.2% y/y 0.4% m/m; 4.2% y/y
Low
08:00
Nationwide House Price Index Sep 2.0% m/m; 3.7% y/y 0.5% m/m; 4.5% y/y
Low
08:45
Consumer Spending Aug 0.5% -0.2%
Low
08:45
Consumer Price Index Sep -0.1% m/m; 0.2% y/y -0.3% m/m
Low
09:00
KOF Economic Barometer Sep 110.2 105.6
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Rate Sep 6.4% 6.4%
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Change Sep -9K -7K
Medium
10:00
ZEW-CS Survey (Economic Expectations) Sep 45.6 43.4
Low
10:30
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Medium
11:00
Gross Domestic Product Sep 0.3% m/m; -0.5% y/y -0.5% m/m; -0.4% y/y
Low
14:15
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Sep 428K 650K
Medium
14:30
Gross Domestic Product Jul 6.5% m/m; -7.8% y/y 2.9% m/m
High
14:30
GDP 2 quarter -31.7% -31.7%
Medium
14:30
GDP Price Index 2 quarter -2.0% -2.0%
Low
15:00
SNB Quarterly Bulletin
Low
15:45
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Sep 51.2 52.0
Medium
16:00
Pending Home Sales Aug 5.9% m/m; 15.4% y/y 3.1% m/m
Medium
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Sep -1639K
Medium
17:00
FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speaks
Medium
Thursday, 01 October 2020 
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

This indicator measures business conditions in a number of manufacturing and manufacturing-related companies. A number above 50.0 indicates industry expansion; below 50.0 signals a contraction. Survey conducted by the Australian Industry Group (AIG).

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

An economic survey of Japanese business issued by the central Bank of Japan, which it then uses to formulate monetary policy. The report is released four times a year in April, July, October and mid-December.

Reflects the prevailing sentiment of firms in the service sector on current business conditions. Business confidence among non-manufacturing firms, which conduct most of their business within Japan, reflects both the strength of domestic demand and the health of the non-export sector. The Non-Manufacturing Index is also important as a measure of overall economic health.

The Tankan large Manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Manufacturing sector for the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The TanKan Non-manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Non-Manufacturing sector in the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure released by the Bank of Japan measures capital expenditure (capex) of all the Japanese industries except the financial industry. The Capex is considered as an early indicator of productively growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Generally, a government bond is issued by a national government and is denominated in the country`s own currency. Bonds issued by national governments in foreign currencies are normally referred to as sovereign bonds. The yield required by investors to loan funds to governments reflects inflation expectations and the likelihood that the debt will be repaid.

This indicator measures commodities exported from Australia.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the Swiss economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of Swiss Gross Domestic Product. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

It is the key gauge for inflation in Switzerland. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Franc, where each Franc buys fewer goods and services. The CPI calculates the change in the price of a predetermined basket of consumer goods and services. This basket represents the goods and services that an average household will purchase. The figure is compared to those of the previous month as well as the previous year in order to gauge changes to the costs of living on a month to month and year to year basis. The headline number is the percentage change either from the previous month's value or the previous year's value.

As the key indicator of inflation, a rising CPI may prompt the Swiss National Bank to raise interest rates in attempt to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Franc more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Franc.

The Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised is economic indicator constructed to measure the changes over time in the prices of consumer goods and services acquired by households. The HICPs give comparable measures of inflation in the euro-zone, the EU, the European Economic Area and for other countries including accession and candidate countries. They are calculated according to a harmonised approach and a single set of definitions. They provide the official measure of consumer price inflation in the euro-zone for the purposes of monetary policy in the euro area and assessing inflation convergence as required under the Maastricht criteria.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. It is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

The Schweizerischer Verband Materialwirtschaft und Einkauf (SVME) Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic performance.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output and consumption. The PMI survey results are the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany , which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI can provide a good indicator to the overall economic condition in Germany as well as Euro-zone. However, despite the timeliness of the report, Manufacturing PMI is not a big market mover.
The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term manufacturing business conditions. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. It is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Bonds with the longest maturity.

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.
Change in the number of job cuts announced by employers. It's extremely early data, but historically has limited short-term correlation with overall labor conditions.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index. It reflects either improvement (>50) or worsening (<50) of the situation compared with the previous month. Growth in the indicator and higher-than-expected reading favors the local currency.

A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month.ISM Manufacuring assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.

Values over 50 generally indicate an expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month.ISM Manufacuring assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.

Values over 50 generally indicate an expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month.ISM Manufacuring assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.

Values over 50 generally indicate an expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

Construction Spending gauges the level of construction activity in the United States . The Construction Spending report looks at both residential and non-residential construction. The construction industry makes a significant contribution to the United States GDP in the form of investment expenditure as well as stimulus of industries related to building. Furthermore, since builders are unlikely to pour money into construction projects unless they feel the economy favors their investment, changes in business sentiment like this are usually quickly seen in construction figures. However, the report has little significance for market participants because of its untimely release. By the time the report is announced, other reports, such as Building Permits and Building Starts have already provided similar information.

The report headline is the percentage change from the previous month.

Technical notes: The construction industry is a major force to the United States economy, even without including non-construction businesses that are tied to building, such as finance, the furnishing industry, appliance industry and other manufacturing. Private Construction activity can be an effective indicator of business confidence.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:00
FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks
Medium
00:30
AIG Manufacturing Index Sep 49.3
Low
01:00
PMI Manufacturing (CBA) Sep 55.5 55.5
Low
01:50
Tankan Manufacturing Index 3 quarter -34 -23
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 3 quarter -17 -9
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook 4 quarter -27 -17
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 4 quarter -14 -9
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large All Industry Capex 3 quarter 3.2% 1.3%
Medium
02:30
PMI Manufacturing Sep 47.3 47.3
Low
05:35
10-Year JGB Auction Oct 0.034%; 3.15
Low
08:30
Commodity Prices Sep -9.2%
Low
08:30
Retail Sales Aug 4.1% 4.5%
Low
08:30
CPI Sep 0.0% m/m; -0.9% y/y 0.0% m/m; -0.7% y/y
Medium
08:30
Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised Sep -0.1% m/m; -1.4% y/y
Low
09:15
PMI Manufacturing Sep 49.9 50.5
Low
09:30
SVME Purchasing Managers Index Sep 51.8 53.4
Low
09:45
PMI Manufacturing Sep 53.1 53.6
Low
09:50
PMI Manufacturing Sep 50.9 50.9
Low
09:55
PMI Manufacturing Sep 56.6 56.6
Low
10:00
Unemployment Rate Aug 9.7% 10.2%
Low
10:00
PMI Manufacturing Sep 53.7 53.7
Low
10:30
10-y Bond Auction Oct 0.047%; 2.38
Low
10:30
PMI Manufacturing Sep 54.3 54.3
Low
10:30
30-Year Bonds Auction Oct 1.091%; 1.25
Low
11:00
PPI Aug 0.6% m/m; -3.3% y/y 0.2% m/m; -2.7% y/y
Low
11:00
Unemployment Rate Aug 7.9% 8.1%
Low
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Oct -0.19%; 1.65
Low
11:00
30-y Bond Auction Oct 0.53%; 1.99
Low
12:20
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Medium
13:30
Challenger Job Cuts Sep 115.762K; 116.5%
Low
14:30
PCE Core Aug 0.3% m/m; 1.3% y/y 0.3% m/m; 1.4% y/y
Medium
14:30
Personal Spending Aug 1.9% 0.7%
Medium
14:30
Personal Income Aug 0.4% -2.0%
Low
14:30
Building Permits Aug -3.0%
Low
14:30
Unemployment Claims Sep 870K 850K
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Sep 12580K 12300K
Medium
15:30
RBC Manufacturing PMI (s.a.) Sep 55.1 54.1
Medium
15:45
ISM Manufacturing Sep 53.5 53.5
Low
16:00
ISM Manufacturing Sep 56.0 56.0
High
16:00
ISM Manufacturing Prices Sep 59.5 59.0
Low
16:00
Construction Spending Aug 0.1% 0.8%
Low
16:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Sep 66bln
Low
17:00
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks
Medium
17:00
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Medium
Friday, 02 October 2020 

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The monetary base is the volume of money in the economy. It consists of the currency (banknotes and coins) in circulation and the commercial banks reserves in the Central Bank.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Consumer Confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though the Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

The Budget Balance released by MINEFA is the difference between income and expenditure at the end of the budget's period . If the amount is positive then the balance shows a surplus, to the contrary, if it is negative, the balance is in deficit, therefore unveiling borrowing needs. Generally, a surplus is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro and a deficit is seen as negative (or bearish).

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Spain.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

One of the most widely anticipated reports on the US economic calendar, the Employment Situation is a timely report that gives a picture of job creation, loss, wages and working hours in the United States. Data in the report relies on the Household Survey and the Establishment (or Payroll) Survey. While the Household Survey is based on the interviews to US households, the Establishment Survey queries business establishments, making it the preferred source of data. The Employment Situation's has many significant figures such as: Change in Non Farm Payrolls, Unemployment, Manufacturing Payrolls, and Average Hourly Earnings.

The headline figures for this report are reported monthly, as the total number of new jobs in thousands (say, 120K new jobs), and the unemployment rate.

Change in Non-farm Payrolls

Monthly change in employment excluding the farming sector. Non-farm payrolls is the most closely watched indicator in the Employment Situation, considered the most comprehensive measure of job creation in the US. Such a distinction makes the NFP figure highly significant, given the importance of labor to the US economy. Specifically, political pressures come into play, as the Fed is responsible for keeping employment in a healthy range and utilizes interest rate changes to do so. A surge in new Non-farm Payrolls suggests rising employment and potential inflation pressures, which the Fed often counters with rate increases. On the other hand, a consistent decline in Non-farm Employment suggests a slowing economy, which makes a decline in rates more likely.

Private Nonfarm Payrolls measures the change in the number of total payrolls in any business, excluding general government employees, private household employees, employees of nonprofit organizations that provide assistance to individuals and farm employees.

Manufacturing Payrolls in the United States is reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. The indicator shows employment in manufacturing sector.

An indicator of how the average level of pay is changing. The Average Hourly Earnings figure provides insight into future spending and inflation. A High Average Hourly Earnings bodes well for future consumption, as workers have more disposable income. High figures may indicate inflationary pressures due to employee's additional potential to spend. The figure is either measured in hourly or weekly averages or as a percent change from the previous month.

The Average Weekly Hours released by the US Department of Labor is an indicator of labor cost inflation and of the tightness of labor markets. The Federal Reserve Board pays close attention to when setting interest rates. Excessive volatility is expected.

A measure of the active portion of an economy's labor force. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate. During an economic recession, many workers often get discouraged and stop looking for employment, as a result, the participation rate decreases. The participation rate is an important metric to note when looking at unemployment data because unemployment figures reflect the number of people who are looking for jobs but are unable to secure employment.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers. Factory Orders is not a widely watched economic release. The Advance Release on Durable Goods Activity reported one week earlier tends grab more market attention, given that durable goods make up more than half of factory orders.

Factory Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.

Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month.

On a Technical Note: The New Orders figure measures the value of orders received by manufacturers for new products from both domestic and foreign sources. The total value of products shipped is calculated in Shipments while Unfilled Orders measures the value of goods backlogged for order but not yet shipped. Lastly, Inventories gauges the amount of unsold goods held by manufacturers.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:30
Unemployment Rate Aug 2.9% 3.0%
Low
01:50
Monetary Base Sep 11.5% 11.9%
Low
03:30
Retail Sales Aug -4.2% -4.2%
Low
07:00
Consumer Confidence Sep 29.3 31.6
Low
08:45
Gov Budget Balance Aug -151.0bln
Low
09:00
Unemployment Change Sep 29.8K
Low
11:00
Consumer Price Index Sep -0.2% -0.1%
High
11:00
Consumer Price Index Core Sep 0.4% 0.5%
Medium
14:30
Unemployment Rate Sep 8.4% 8.2%
High
14:30
Non-Farm Payrolls Sep 1371K 900K
High
14:30
Change in Private Payrolls Sep 1027K 913K
Medium
14:30
Change in Manufacturing Payrolls Sep 29K 25K
Medium
14:30
Average Hourly Earnings Sep 0.4% m/m; 4.7% y/y 0.5% m/m; 4.6% y/y
Medium
14:30
Average Weekly Hours Sep 34.6 34.6
Low
14:30
Participation rate Sep 61.7% 61.5%
Low
15:30
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks
Medium
16:00
Factory Orders Aug 6.4% m/m; 2.1% m/m 1.5% m/m
Low
16:00
UoM Inflation Expectations Sep 2.7%; 2.6%
Low
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Oct 261
Low
Saturday, 03 October 2020 
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
18:00
Daylight Saving Time Shift
Low

No events found