Monday, 24 September 2018 

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP.

Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy.

The value of sales made by Canadian wholesalers. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption and the economy. The headline figure reports the monthly percentage change in Wholesale Sales, seasonally adjusted to account for variations in demand due to seasonal cycles.

These sectors are farm products, food, beverages, and tobacco products, personal and household goods, automotive products, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment etc.

Assesses overall business environment in a country.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
10:00
Ifo Business Climate Index Sep 103.9 103.2 103.7
Medium
10:00
Ifo Current Assessment Sep 106.5 106.0 106.4
Medium
10:00
IFO - Expectations Sep 101.3 100.5 101.0
Medium
12:00
CBI industrial order books balance Sep 7 5 -1
Low
14:30
Wholesale Sales Jul -0.9% m/m 0.4% m/m 1.5% m/m
Low
15:00
NBB Business Climate Sep -0.3 -0.5 1.2
Low
15:00
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
High
Tuesday, 25 September 2018 
The Bank of Japan publishes the summary from its monthly monetary policy meetings some time after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and decide the central bank’s monetary policy. The minutes usually come out late, at least a month after the meeting, but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision making process.

Change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

Measures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.

Vlieghe was an economic assistant to Lord Mervyn King at the Bank of England. He then worked as a bond strategist and director at the Deutsche Bank. Later, he worked as a senior economist at Brevan Howard, a hedge fund based in London. On 28 July 2015, it was announced that he would replace David Miles in September 2015 in the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Bank of England.
Benoit Coeure is a French economist who was appointed to the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) in 2011.

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

The growth of this indicator is favorable for the markets. It is not seasonally adjusted.

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:50
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes Jul
Low
01:50
Corporate Service Price Index Aug 1.1% y/y 1.1% y/y 1.3% y/y
Low
07:00
Leading Indicators Jul 103.5 104.1 103.9
Low
07:35
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks
High
08:00
Wholesale Price Index Aug 0.1% m/m; 3.6% y/y 0.2% m/m 0.3% m/m; 3.8% y/y
Low
10:40
MPC Member Gertjan Vlieghe Speaks
Medium
14:00
Member of the Executive Board of the ECB Benoit Coeure Speaks
Low
15:00
House Price Index Jul 0.3% m/m 0.2% m/m 0.2% m/m
Low
15:00
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Jul 6.4% y/y 6.2% y/y 5.9% y/y
Low
16:00
Consumer Confidence Sep 134.7 132.2 138.4
High
16:00
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Sep 24 22 29
Low
Wednesday, 26 September 2018 

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

The results of the ANZ Bank Business survey held among businesses nationwide.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

This is a report which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

The ZEW-CS Indicator is calculated monthly by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) in cooperation with Credit Suisse (CS). The indicator reflects the expectations of the surveyed financial market experts regarding the economic development in Switzerland on a six-month time horizon.

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by High Street banks during the previous month. High Street banks make up around 65% of total UK mortgage lending. It's a leading indicator of housing market demand – most home purchases are financed with a mortgage, so it provides an excellent gauge of how many qualified buyers are entering the market.

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed retailers and wholesalers: above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower. This is a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume. It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels.
 

Tends to have a mild impact because much of the information is released 2 weeks earlier in the Monetary Policy Assessmen.

Movements in these indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy.

The Index includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Index provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.

The index operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indictors are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.

Records sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.

Generally, the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.

New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.

The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

The main interest rates settled by the FOMC are responsible for driving inflation in accordance with the monetary policy adopted by the FED. One of the rates in mind is the overnight borrowing rate and the Federal Reserve’s Cash Rate Target (FRCRT). The latter affects interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bonds or others. The actual changes to the interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar. However, the market expectation, in respect to future monetary policy, plays a part that is even more significant for the market. In such circumstances, any indirect information that provides hints to future FED monetary policy, and thus influences the market expectations in respect to the interest rates, may have a significant impact on the US currency. Typically, an increase of the interest rates, or expectations of such an increase, provide fundamental support to the US dollar. The lower interest rates may have a negative impact on the US currency.

The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Economic projections are collected from each member of the Board of Governors and each Federal Reserve Bank president four times a year, in connection with the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC’s) usual two-day meetings (typically held in January, April, June, and November). Several charts and a table that summarize those projections are released at the Chairman's press conference within hours of the meeting. Three weeks later, more detailed information is provided in the Summary of Economic Projections, which is published with the minutes of the FOMC meeting.

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The FOMC conference is among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank to meet the inflation target specified in the Policy Targets Agreement (PTA). The current PTA, signed in September 2012, defines price stability as annual increases in the Consumers Price Index (CPI) of between 1 and 3 per cent on average over the medium term, with a focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2 percent target midpoint.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) releases this statement in connection to its recent decision on short-term interest rates. Interest rates are a primary determinant of a currency's value and these statements are used by traders to determine future monetary policy decisions.

The RBNZ is issued regarding the recent decision on interest rates and is required to include all details on how the bank will achieve its inflation targets and how it intends on achieving its recent monetary policy decisions.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:45
Trade Balance Aug -196M; -4504M -930M; -4620M -1484M; -4814M
Medium
03:00
ANZ Business Confidence Sep -50.3 -38.3
Medium
07:00
BOJ Core CPI Aug 0.5% y/y 0.6% y/y 0.5% y/y
Low
08:00
Prelim Machine Tool Orders Aug 5.3% y/y
Low
10:00
ZEW-CS Survey (Economic Expectations) Sep -14.3 -30.8
Low
10:30
High Street Lending Aug 39.6K 39.7K 39.4K
Low
12:00
CBI retail sales volume balance Sep 29 18
Low
15:00
SNB Quarterly Bulletin
Low
15:00
Leading indicators Aug 135.6; 1.1% m/m
Low
16:00
New Home Sales Aug 627K; -1.7% m/m 630K; 0.5% m/m
Medium
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Sep -2057K -700K
Medium
20:00
FOMC Rate Decision Sep 2.00% 2.25%
High
20:00
FOMC Statement
High
20:00
FOMC Economic Projections
High
20:30
FOMC Press Conference
High
23:00
Official Cash Rate Sep 1.75% 1.75%
High
23:00
RBNZ Rate Statement
High
23:00
RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
Medium
Thursday, 27 September 2018 

Reserve Bank of New Zealand press conference. The Bank's press conference summarizes the main points of the assessment of the current situation, both in New Zealand itself and outside it. Traders and investors are trying to catch the hints of changing the current rate, that is, raising or lowering the rate, or maintaining the status quo. Unexpected comments can cause very serious movements.

The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.

The broadest measure of money supply in use by Eurozone nations. It includes all currency in circulation, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, debt securities up to 2 years, and the value of money market shares. A larger money supply reduces the purchasing power of the Euro and puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. However, because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply.

Domestic credit to private sector refers to financial resources provided to the private sector, such as through loans, purchases of nonequity securities, and trade credits and other accounts receivable, that establish a claim for repayment.

In 2015 the Economic Bulletin replaced the Monthly Bulletin. The Economic Bulletin is published two weeks after the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the ECB. Issues published after the monetary policy meetings in March, June, September and December provide a comprehensive analysis of economic and monetary developments, including a discussion of the Eurosystem/ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. Other issues are shorter and provide an interim update on developments in key monthly indicators.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Bonds with the longest maturity.
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the US economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight into the driving forces of the economy.

GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.

On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter's end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most.

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

Since July 2015, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis has started publishing preliminary estimate of goods trade balance. This release will be 4-7 earlier than trade balance data. Growth in the reading favors the US dollar.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Executive board member and chief economist of the European Central Bank. Within the board, Praet is widely considered to be centrist on monetary policy, perhaps even slightly “dovish”, meaning he is more likely to take growth prospects into account in the conduct of monetary policy than strict inflation “hawks” do.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Fed Chair Feb 2018 - Feb 2022. Fed Governor May 2012 - Jan 2028. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:00
RBNZ Press Conference
High
08:00
GfK Consumer Climate Oct 10.5 10.6
Low
10:00
M3 Money Supply Aug 4.0% y/y 3.8% y/y
Medium
10:00
Private Sector Credit Aug 3.0% y/y 3.1% y/y
Low
10:00
ECB Economic Bulletin
Low
10:00
Unemployment Rate Aug 10.4%
Low
10:30
30-Year Bonds Auction Sep 2.583%; 1.58
Low
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Sep 3.25%; 1.37
Low
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Sep 0.71%; 1.95
Low
11:00
30-y Bond Auction Sep 1.65%; 1.35
Low
11:00
Consumer Confidence Sep -2.9 -2.9
Low
14:00
CPI Sep 0.1% m/m; 2.0% y/y 0.1% m/m; 2.0% y/y
Medium
14:00
Harmonized CPI Sep 0.0% m/m; 1.9% y/y 0.1% m/m; 2.0% y/y
Medium
14:30
Durable Goods Orders Aug -1.7% m/m; 0.2% m/m 1.9% m/m; 0.4% m/m
High
14:30
GDP 2 quarter 4.2% q/q 4.2% q/q
Medium
14:30
GDP Price Index 2 quarter 3.0% q/q 3.0% q/q
Low
14:30
Goods Trade Balance Aug -72.2bln -70.6bln
Medium
14:30
Wholesale Inventories Aug 0.6% m/m 0.3% m/m
Low
14:30
Unemployment Claims Sep 201K 208K
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Sep 1645K 1675K
Low
15:30
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks
High
16:00
Pending Home Sales Aug -0.7% m/m; -0.5% y/y -0.2% m/m
Medium
16:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Sep 86bln
Low
18:30
FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks
Low
19:00
ECB’s Peter Praet Speaks
Low
22:30
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
High
Friday, 28 September 2018 
Mr. Poloz was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2013, for a term of seven years. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank. Mr. Poloz has over 30 years of public and private sector experience in financial markets, forecasting and economic policy. Traders and investors listen to his speeches, as they may contain hints at change the course of monetary policy, or a change in the Bank's assessments of the economic outlook.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction New Zealand . Building Consents, or Building Permits, are issued when a building project has been authorized to begin construction. Since Building Consents serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects Building Permits suggests optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, housing indicators are popular leading indicators due to the multiplier effect that they have on the rest of the economy. The headline is the percentage change in new consents for the month.

Note: When looking deeper into the report it is important to analyze in detail what the type of projects the consents are for, as Building Consents include residential housing as well as 'big-ticket' non-residential buildings and government projects that can create large gyrations in the report month to month.

Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion. The report also breaks down results into parts of the economy, giving a detailed picture of the consumer climate in Great Britain. GfK Consumer Confidence is one of the most closely watched surveys. The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term Consumer Confidence averages. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change. On a global basis, the indicator is very important for the economy, as it reflects consumers sentiments which formed the major portion of Great Britain GDP. The survey is conducted monthly by GfK, a market research organization, on behalf of the EU commission.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

An indicator of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo, excluding such volatile item as fresh food.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

This report includes the BOJ's projection for inflation and economic growth. It's the primary tool the BOJ uses to communicate their economic and monetary projections to investors.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows.
The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is a composite indicator designed to provide an overall view of activity in the manufacturing sector and acts as an leading indicator for the whole economy. When the PMI is below 50.0 this indicates that the manufacturing economy is declining and a value above 50.0 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing economy. Flash figures are released approximately 6 business days prior to the end of the month. Final figures overwrite the flash figures upon release and are in turn overwritten as the next Flash is available. The Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI is concluded from a monthly survey of about 430 purchasing managers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of business conditions including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries, and inventories. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CNY , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CNY.

The Housing Starts figure reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. The number of housing starts is an indicator of the strength of Japan 's construction sector and a leading indicator for the direction of the economy as a whole. Housing Starts respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, promptly slowing at the onset of a recession and growing at the beginning of an economic boom. A high Housing Starts figure is generally bullish for the economy, as it indicates overall economic growth.

The headline figures are the year on year percentage change in value of housing starts, and the value of all houses started for construction that year.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of German Gross Domestic Product. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information current conditions in the housing market. The Index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices.
 

Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted goods expenditures by consumers.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany.

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the GBP.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

The change in capital expenditures made by private firms. Businesses only invest when they are optimistic about future economic growth and expect a profitable return on their investments. Because of this, increased capital expenditures usually reflect a higher level of consumer demand that induces companies to expand their productive capacity. Current Business Investment usually allow for higher GDP in the future. For these reasons Business Investment may lead economic growth.

The headline number is the percentage change in investment from the previous quarter.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

A comprehensive measure of Canada's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

Measures the prices paid by Canadian manufacturers for key raw materials, including resources not produced in Canada. Also known as the Producer Price Index, the RMPI is an early measure of inflation. Although producers may not pass on changes in raw material prices to consumers immediately, the index will record these cost pressures before they reach the end consumer and affect inflation rates. The headline figure is the percentage change in the price index from the previous month and year.

The index includes prices for raw materials like mineral fuels, vegetable products, animal and animal products, wood, ferrous materials, non-ferrous metals, and non-metallic minerals.
 

Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.

С января 2018-го Томас Баркин является президентом ФРБ Ричмонда. В 2018-м является голосующим членом FOMC, то есть непосредственно участвует в формировании монетарной политики. Более оптимистичные заявления, в сравнении с ожиданиями могут поддержать спрос на риск. Озабоченность инфляцией, напротив, может пойти на пользу доллару, на ожиданиях ужесточения политики.
BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction.

A survey of consumer confidence conducted by the University of Michigan. The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (MCSI) uses telephone surveys to gather information on consumer expectations regarding the overall economy. The preliminary report, which includes about 60% of total survey results, is released around the 10th of each month. A final report for the prior month is released on the first of the month. The index is becoming more and more useful for investors because it gives a snapshot of whether consumers feel like spending money.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:00
BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks
High
00:45
Building Permits Aug -10.3% m/m
Low
01:01
GfK Consumer Confidence Survey Sep -7 -8
Low
01:30
National CPI Sep 1.2% y/y 1.1% y/y
Low
01:30
National CPI ex Fresh Food Sep 0.9% y/y 0.9% y/y
Low
01:30
Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food & Energy Sep 0.6% y/y 0.6% y/y
Low
01:30
Unemployment Rate Aug 2.5% 2.5%
Low
01:50
Summary of Opinions
Low
01:50
Retail Sales Aug 0.1% m/m; 1.5% y/y 0.5% m/m; 2.2% y/y
Low
01:50
Industrial Production Aug -0.2% m/m; 2.2% y/y 1.5% m/m; 1.5% y/y
Low
03:30
Private Sector Credit Aug 0.4% m/m; 4.4% y/y 0.4% m/m; 4.3% y/y
Low
03:45
Markit Final Manufacturing PMI Sep 50.6 50.5
Medium
07:00
Housing Starts Aug 0.958M; -0.7% y/y 0.946M; 0.4% y/y
Low
08:00
Retail Sales Aug -0.4% m/m; 0.8% y/y
Medium
08:00
Import Price Index Aug -0.2% m/m; 5.0% y/y
Low
08:00
Nationwide House Price Index Sep -0.5% m/m; 2.0% y/y 0.2% m/m; 1.8% y/y
Low
08:45
Consumer Spending Aug 0.1% m/m 0.3% m/m
Low
08:45
Consumer Price Index Sep 0.5% m/m; 2.3% y/y -0.1% m/m
Low
09:00
KOF Economic Barometer Sep 100.3 100.1
Medium
09:00
CPI Sep 2.2% y/y 2.2% y/y
Low
09:00
GDP 2 quarter 0.6% q/q; 2.7% y/y 0.6% q/q; 2.7% y/y
Low
09:55
Unemployment Rate Sep 5.2% 5.2%
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Change Sep -8K -9K
Medium
10:30
Current Account 2 quarter -17.7bln -19.4bln
Medium
10:30
GDP 2 quarter 0.4% q/q; 1.3% y/y 0.4% q/q; 1.3% y/y
Medium
10:30
Business Investment 2 quarter 0.5% q/q; 0.8% y/y 0.5% q/q; 0.8% y/y
Low
11:00
Consumer Price Index Sep 2.0% y/y 2.1% y/y
High
11:00
Consumer Price Index Core Sep 1.0% y/y 1.1% y/y
Medium
11:00
Gross Domestic Product Sep 0.4% m/m; 1.6% y/y -0.2% m/m; 1.7% y/y
Low
14:30
Gross Domestic Product Jul 0.0% m/m; 2.4% y/y 0.1% m/m; 2.2% y/y
High
14:30
Raw Materials Price Index Aug 0.7% m/m 0.8% m/m
Medium
14:30
Industrial Product Price Index Aug -0.2% m/m 0.6% m/m
Low
14:30
PCE Core Aug 0.2% m/m; 2.0% y/y 0.1% m/m; 2.0% y/y
Medium
14:30
Personal Spending Aug 0.4% m/m 0.3% m/m
Medium
14:30
Personal Income Aug 0.3% m/m 0.4% m/m
Low
14:30
Член FOMC Томас Баркин выступит с речью
Medium
15:20
BOE Deputy Governor for Markets & Banking Sir David Ramsden Speaks
Medium
15:45
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Sep 63.6 62.3
Medium
16:00
UoM Consumer Sentiment Sep 100.8 100.5
Medium
16:00
UoM Inflation Expectations Sep 2.8%; 2.4%
Low
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Sep 1053
Low
22:45
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks
Medium
Saturday, 29 September 2018 

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
08:00
PPI Aug 0.2% m/m; 3.0% y/y
Low
16:00
Daylight Saving Time Shift
Low
Sunday, 30 September 2018 

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

It is a major indicator of the strength of the non-manufacturing sector of China.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
03:00
PMI Manufacturing Sep 51.3
High
03:00
Non-Manufacturing PMI Sep 54.2
Medium
Monday, 01 October 2018 

This indicator measures business conditions in a number of manufacturing and manufacturing-related companies. A number above 50.0 indicates industry expansion; below 50.0 signals a contraction. Survey conducted by the Australian Industry Group (AIG).

An economic survey of Japanese business issued by the central Bank of Japan, which it then uses to formulate monetary policy. The report is released four times a year in April, July, October and mid-December.

Reflects the prevailing sentiment of firms in the service sector on current business conditions. Business confidence among non-manufacturing firms, which conduct most of their business within Japan, reflects both the strength of domestic demand and the health of the non-export sector. The Non-Manufacturing Index is also important as a measure of overall economic health.

The Tankan large Manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Manufacturing sector for the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The TanKan Non-manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Non-Manufacturing sector in the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Tracks overall business conditions for large manufacturing enterprises. The Tankan main component, the Large Manufacturers Index is indicative of the sentiment of leading manufacturing companies. The index uses zero as the centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the farther the value from zero the stronger the sentiment. High positive values signify favourable business conditions and suggest increased levels of production in the future. Low values suggest an ongoing or future contraction in the manufacturing sector. This measure is especially important for Japan because manufacturing firms are a primary driver of growth for the export-oriented economy.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:30
AIG Manufacturing Index Sep 56.7
Low
01:50
Tankan Manufacturing Index 3 quarter 21
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 3 quarter 24
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook 4 quarter 21
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 4 quarter 21
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 3 quarter 13.6%
Medium

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