Economic Calendar

Market impact tends to be greater when the report reveals a viewpoint that clashes with the ECB's stance. It contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint.

Records sales of previously owned homes in the United States . This report provides a fairly accurate assessment of housing market conditions, and because of the sensitivity of the housing market to business cycle twists, it can be an important indicator of overall conditions at times when housing is particularly important to the economy.

While used home sales are not counted in GDP, they do affect the United States economy. Sellers of used homes often use capital gains from property sales on consumption that stimulate the economy. Higher levels of consumer spending may also increase inflationary pressures, even as they help grow the economy.

The existing home sales report is not as timely as other housing indicators like New Home Sales or Building Permits. By the time the Existing Home Sales are recorded, market conditions may have changed.

The headline is the total value of properties sold.

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Evaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan's service sector. Because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved in wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. The tertiary industry index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month's figure.

An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an increase or improvement, and below 50 indicates a decrease or deterioration.

The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.

A monthly guage of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Gauge for the overall performance of the country's service sector. The Services PMI interviews executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the country's service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.

Gauge for overall performance of the German manufacturing sector. Through asking executives about sales and employment outlook, the survey strives to provide useful information about the business climate that can lead to developments in employment, output and consumption. The PMI survey results are the result of interviews with business executives. Manufacturing is an important sector in Germany , which is why changes in Manufacturing PMI can provide a good indicator to the overall economic condition in Germany as well as Euro-zone. However, despite the timeliness of the report, Manufacturing PMI is not a big market mover.
The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term manufacturing business conditions. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change.

Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.

The Euro-zone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Because the manufacturing sector represents nearly a quarter of total Euro-zone GDP, the Euro-zone Manufacturing PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Results are quantified in an index in which values above 50 indicate an expected increase of business conditions and values below 50 signal an expected deterioration.

Gauge for the overall performance of the German service sector. The Services PMI interviews German executives on the status of sales, employment, and their outlook. Because the performance of the German service sector is extremely consistent over time, services does not impact final GDP figures as much as the more volatile figure on the manufacturing sector. For this reason Services PMI usually causes little market movement. The survey results are quantified and presented as an index on a 1-100 scale. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index.

The Eurozone Composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) assesses business conditions in manufacturing, construction and service sectors. The Eurozone PMI is both a significant and timely indicator of business conditions and the general health of the economy. Close correlation with the business cycle, assessed on the basis of long-term statistical data, allows to use the PMI indicator for prognosis of future GDP volumes. The PMI indices are based on  selected panels of executives in companies who report each month on real events. The subindex of intangibles sector - PMI services - is of more importance because in industrialized countries around 70% of GDP is generated in non-manufacturing sector.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. It is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

A monthly gauge of the UK service sector that takes into account business outlook. The survey queries executives in transport and communications, financial intermediation, business services, personal services, computing and IT, hotels and restaurants.

Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the service sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

Because the contribution services makes to the economy tends to be very consistent and predictable, Services PMI figures typically do not move markets

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

A component of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) that measures changes in prices for new homes. Higher housing prices suggest stronger consumer demand and growth in the housing market. At the same time, higher housing prices that accompany economic expansion often lead to inflationary pressures. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: The New Housing Price Index takes into account the quality and features of the new homes sold. For example, if selling prices for new homes are unchanged, but the features and quality of housing have increased (e.g. added swimming pool and better construction materials), then the price for new homes is considered to have fallen.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

A monthly index released by the Institute of Supply Management which tracks the amount of manufacturing activity that occurred in the previous month.ISM Manufacuring assesses the state of US industry by surveying executives on expectations for future production, new orders, inventories, employment and deliveries. This data is considered a very important and trusted economic measure. If the index has a value below 50, due to a decrease in activity, it tends to indicate an economic recession, especially if the trend continues over several months. A value substantially above 50 likely indicates a time of economic growth. The values for the index can be between 0 and 100.

Values over 50 generally indicate an expansion, while values below 50 indicate contraction.

Records sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.

Generally, the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.

New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.

The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Change in the price of services purchased by corporations. It's a leading indicator of consumer inflation - when corporations pay more for services the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer.

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP.

Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

The broadest measure of money supply in use by Eurozone nations. It includes all currency in circulation, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, debt securities up to 2 years, and the value of money market shares. A larger money supply reduces the purchasing power of the Euro and puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. However, because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply.

Domestic credit to private sector refers to financial resources provided to the private sector, such as through loans, purchases of nonequity securities, and trade credits and other accounts receivable, that establish a claim for repayment.

This review reflects businessmen sentiment concerning the position of the industrial sector of the economy.

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Assesses overall business environment in a country.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.