Monday, 27 July 2026 
This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP.

Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

Domestic credit to private sector refers to financial resources provided to the private sector, such as through loans, purchases of nonequity securities, and trade credits and other accounts receivable, that establish a claim for repayment.

The broadest measure of money supply in use by Eurozone nations. It includes all currency in circulation, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, debt securities up to 2 years, and the value of money market shares. A larger money supply reduces the purchasing power of the Euro and puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. However, because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply.

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed retailers and wholesalers: above 0 indicates higher sales volume, below indicates lower. This is a survey of about 160 retail and wholesale companies which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current sales volume. It's a leading indicator of consumer spending because retailer and wholesaler sales are directly influenced by consumer buying levels.
 

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
07:00
Leading Indicators May 116.8 116.8 116.5
Low
10:00
Ifo Business Climate Index Jul 85.7 86.1 86.6
Medium
10:00
Ifo Current Assessment Jul 87.0 86.5
Medium
10:00
IFO - Expectations Jul 84.3 86.7
Medium
10:00
Private Sector Credit Jun 3.0% 3.1% 3.0%
Low
10:00
M3 Money Supply Jun 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%
Low
12:00
CBI retail sales volume balance Jul -54 -45 -26
Low
14:30
Durable Goods Orders Jun -4.0%; 1.4% 1.6%; 0.9% 0.3%; 0.6%
Medium
Tuesday, 28 July 2026 
Change in the price of goods purchased at BRC-member retail stores. Leads the government-released consumer inflation data by about 10 days, but has a narrower scope as it only includes goods purchased from retailers who belong to the BRC. This data is usually released 1 day before the Bank of England interest rate decision. Full reports are only available to BRC subscribers.
Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Market impact tends to be greater when the report reveals a viewpoint that clashes with the ECB's stance. It contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint.

Since July 2015, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis has started publishing preliminary estimate of goods trade balance. This release will be 4-7 earlier than trade balance data. Growth in the reading favors the US dollar.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted.

Assessment of consumer sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income. Based on a representative sample of thousands of mail-in surveys, the Conference Board index has the largest pooling sample of any US measure of consumer confidence. Consumer Confidence levels are generally linked with consumer spending. For instance, when consumer confidence is on the rise consumer spending tends to increase. Low or falling consumer confidence on the other hand is typically associated with decreased spending and consumer demand.

Some analysts criticize the Consumer Confidence figure for its volatile tendencies and weak connection to household expenditure, turning instead to the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers. The volatility of the Consumer Confidence figure is attributed to two factors: its pooling size and the survey time frame focus. The Conference Board surveys an entirely new group of people each month, resulting in more erratic month to month figures. Additionally, the survey queries respondents on expectations for the following six months, a relatively short term evaluation. Conversely, the University of Michigan survey will re-poll many individuals and focuses on expectations for the next one to five years. The long term focus has a stabilizing effect on consumer confidence.

Survey results are printed in the headlines where 100 reflects a recent base year.

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:01
BRC Shop Price Index Jul 1.2% 1.2% 0.9%
Low
07:00
BOJ Core CPI Jun 1.4% 1.4% 1.5%
Low
09:00
Unemployment Rate 2 quarter 10.83% 10.10% 9.87%
Low
12:00
Bundesbank Monthly Report
Low
14:30
Goods Trade Balance Jun -105.9 -100.3 -101.5bln
Medium
14:30
Wholesale Inventories Jun 0.1% 0.4% 0.3%
Low
15:00
House Price Index May -0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
Low
16:00
Consumer Confidence Jul 91.2 92.4 90.8
Medium
16:00
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Jul 4 7 5
Low
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 

The headline inflation gauge for Australia. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Aussie Dollar, where each Dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that is typically bought by a metropolitan Australian households. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Australian Dollars to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Unlike most other countries, Australia publishes CPI quarterly instead of monthly, increasing the market impact of the report upon release. The headline number is released as the percentage change from the previous quarter or year.

Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, excluding the most volatile 30% of items.
It helps expose the underlying inflation trend through component weighting and anomaly exclusion. The indicator compares the prices growth to the same quarter a yer ago.

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.

The amount of extra funds that a sector has available to provide for either direct and indirect lending purposes to other similar counter-parts.

M4 is referred to as "broad money" or simply "the money supply". It reflects cash outside banks (i.e. in circulation with the public and non-bank firms) + private-sector retail bank and building society deposits + Private-sector wholesale bank and building society deposits and Certificate of Deposit.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

The main interest rates settled by the FOMC are responsible for driving inflation in accordance with the monetary policy adopted by the FED. One of the rates in mind is the overnight borrowing rate and the Federal Reserve’s Cash Rate Target (FRCRT). The latter affects interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bonds or others. The actual changes to the interest rates have a direct impact on the US dollar. However, the market expectation, in respect to future monetary policy, plays a part that is even more significant for the market. In such circumstances, any indirect information that provides hints to future FED monetary policy, and thus influences the market expectations in respect to the interest rates, may have a significant impact on the US currency. Typically, an increase of the interest rates, or expectations of such an increase, provide fundamental support to the US dollar. The lower interest rates may have a negative impact on the US currency.

The FOMC usually changes the statement slightly at each release. It's these changes that traders focus on. It's the primary tool the FOMC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

The press conference is about an hour long and has 2 parts - first a prepared statement is read, then the conference is open to press questions. The questions often lead to unscripted answers that create heavy market volatility. The FOMC conference is among the primary methods the Fed uses to communicate with investors regarding monetary policy. It covers in detail the factors that affected the most recent interest rate and other policy decisions, along with commentary about economic conditions such as the future growth outlook and inflation. Most importantly, it provides clues regarding future monetary policy.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
03:30
Consumer Price Index Jun -0.7%; 4.0% 0.2%; 4.0% -0.1%; 3.8%
High
03:30
RBA Trimmed Mean CPI Jun 0.4%; 3.6% 0.4% 0.3%; 3.6%
Medium
03:30
RBA Weighted Median Jun 0.4%; 3.6% 0.3%; 3.7%
Medium
08:00
Import Price Index Jun 0.7%; 6.8% -0.7% -0.7%; 6.1%
Low
10:30
Mortgage Approvals Jun 56.6K 57.1K 58.2K
Low
10:30
Net Lending to Individuals Jun 4.9 5.5 9.5bln
Low
10:30
M4 Money Supply Jun 0.1%; 4.3% 0.2% 0.8%; 5.0%
Low
11:35
10-y Bond Auction Jul 3.09%; 1.0 3.13%; 1.1
Low
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Jul 2010K 700K -7167K
Medium
20:00
FOMC Rate Decision Jul 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
High
20:00
FOMC Statement
High
20:30
FOMC Press Conference
High
Thursday, 30 July 2026 

The results of the ANZ Bank Business survey held among businesses nationwide.

The number of domestic building permits granted for the month. Strong growth in new approvals and permits indicates a growing housing market. Because real estate generally leads economic developments - housing tends to thrive at the start of booms and wane at the onset of recession. The figure can be used with others to forecast future growth in the economy as a whole. For this reason Business Approvals is one of eight components used to construct the Conference Board Leading Index, a widely used index to forecast Australia's economic course. A strong housing market also tends to lead consumer spending. The headline number is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in new building approvals from the previous month.

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Consumer Confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though the Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted goods expenditures by consumers.

Change in the number of employed people, excluding the farming industry and government.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

A comprehensive measure of the country's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report, serving as one of the primary indicators of the country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the currency, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

An indicator for broad overall growth in the Eurozone. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

The headline figure for GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in the Eurozone within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

The announcement of whether the Bank of England has increased, decreased or maintained the key interest rate. The BoE meets monthly to decide on monetary policy. After each meeting policy decisions are announced. The main task of the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is to set the monetary stance by fixing the overnight borrowing rate, which is incremental in determining the short-term rates. Through this mechanism, the BoE attempts to affect price levels in order to keep inflation within the target range while maintaining stable economic growth and employment.

The BOE Rate decision has great influence on financial markets. Changes in rates affect interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bond, and the exchange rate of the pound. Increases in rates or even expectations of increases tend to cause the pound to appreciate, while rate decreases cause the currency to depreciate.

This indicator shows how the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee voted. Published monthly, 13 days after the decision on interest rate was announced

It's among the primary tools the MPC uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy. It contains the outcome of their vote on interest rates and other policy measures, along with commentary about the economic conditions that influenced their votes. Most importantly, it discusses the economic outlook and offers clues on the outcome of future votes.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

The GDP for the United States is a gauge of the overall output (goods & services) of the US economy on the continental US GDP is the most comprehensive overall measure of economic output and provides key insight into the driving forces of the economy.

GDP Influence On Markets
If the figure increases, then the economy is improving, and thus the dollar tends to strengthen. If the number falls short of expectations or meets the consensus, dollar bearishness may be triggered. This sort of reaction is again tied to interest rates, as traders expect an accelerating economy, consumers will be affected by inflation and consequently interest rates will rise. However, much like the CPI, a negative change in GDP is more difficult to trade; just because the pace of growth has slowed does not mean it has deteriorated. On the other hand, a better than expected number will usually result in the dollar rising as it implicates that a quickly expanding economy will sooner or later require higher interest rates to keep inflation in check. Overall though, the GDP has fallen in significance and its ability to move markets since most of the components of the report are known in advance

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way
GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The figure is commonly reported in headlines as an annualized percentage, based on quarterly data.

On a technical note: The GDP can be reported in either real or nominal terms, real GDP being adjusted for inflation. GDP actually has three releases, as an Advanced, Preliminary, and Final figure. The Advanced figure is released four weeks following the quarter's end. One month later, the Preliminary GDP is released, followed by the Final GDP measure at the end of the quarter following the reporting quarter. As the most timely measure, the Advanced GDP tends to move markets the most.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Core Personal Consumption Expenditure
Volatile items like food and energy can fluctuate widely due to seasonal and non-systemic factors. In order to provide a less erratic picture of Personal Consumption, food and energy items are excluded in the PCE core report.

The headline figure of PCE is expressed in percentage change in spending for the quarter.

Note: The Personal Consumption Expenditure figure is reported with the Personal Income and Outlays figure.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
03:00
ANZ Business Confidence Jul 36.6 56.1
Low
03:30
Building Approvals Jun -1.6%; 5.5% -0.7% 7.2%; 8.9%
Low
03:30
Import Price Index 2 quarter 0.1% 0.0% 5.7%
Low
07:00
Consumer Confidence Jul 33.8 34.2 34.9
Low
07:30
GDP 2 quarter -0.1%; 0.9% 0.2%; 0.8% 0.2%; 0.7%
Low
07:30
Consumer Spending Jun 0.3% -0.1% 0.4%
Low
08:45
Change in Private Payrolls 2 quarter -0.1% -0.1% -0.1%
Low
09:00
GDP 2 quarter 0.6%; 2.7% 0.6% 0.7%; 2.7%
Low
09:00
CPI Jul 3.2% 3.1% 3.5%
Low
09:00
KOF Economic Barometer Jul 101.2 101.0 103.5
Low
10:00
GDP 2 quarter 0.3%; 0.4% 0.1%; 0.6% 0.2%; 0.9%
Medium
10:00
Gross Domestic Product 2 quarter 0.3%; 0.8% 0.1%; 0.7% 0.2%; 1.0%
Low
11:00
GDP revised 2 quarter -0.2%; 0.3% 0.2%; 0.5% 0.4%; 1.0%
Medium
11:00
Unemployment Rate Jun 6.3% 6.2% 6.3%
Low
11:00
Unemployment Rate Jun 5.3% 5.1% 5.7%
Low
11:06
10-y Bond Auction Jul 3.63%; 1.7 4.00%; 1.7
Low
13:00
BoE Interest Rate Decision Jul 3.75% 3.75% 3.75%
High
13:00
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes Jul 2-0-7 2-0-7 3-0-6
High
13:00
Monetary Policy Summary
High
14:00
CPI Jul -0.3%; 2.3% 0.7%; 2.7% 0.8%; 2.8%
Medium
14:00
Harmonized CPI Jul -0.2%; 2.4% 0.8%; 2.8% 0.9%; 2.8%
Medium
14:30
GDP 2 quarter 2.1% 2.1% 1.5%
High
14:30
PCE Core 2 quarter 4.4% 3.5% 3.4%
Medium
14:30
GDP Price Index 2 quarter 3.6% 4.1% 6.2%
Medium
14:30
PCE Core Jun 0.3%; 3.4% 0.2%; 3.3% 0.1%; 3.3%
High
14:30
Personal Spending Jun 0.9% 0.3% 0.3%
Medium
14:30
Personal Income Jun 0.7% 0.3% 0.2%
Low
14:30
Unemployment Claims Jul 188K 200K 197K
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Jul 1789K 1800K 1782K
Low
16:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Jul 32 37 28bln
Low
Friday, 31 July 2026 

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Japan. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Japanese industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

It is a major indicator of the strength of the non-manufacturing sector of China.

Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows.

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services and tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

The Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy.

Like any central bank, the BOJ is tasked with ensuring price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment, and recommendations from the elected government. With this goal in mind, a "Guideline for Money Market Operations" is established at each meeting. Changes in the rate have far-reaching consequences, affecting consumer loans, mortgages, bonds and the exchange rate of the Yen. The statement is the Bank of Japan's collective outlook on the economy as well as a source for clues on future monetary policy decisions. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate.

The Bank of Japan publishes the summary from its monthly monetary policy meetings some time after the actual meeting. These meetings are held to review economic developments inside and outside of Japan and decide the central bank’s monetary policy. The minutes usually come out late, at least a month after the meeting, but give detailed insight into the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy decision making process.
It provides valuable insight into the bank's view of economic conditions and inflation - the key factors that will shape the future of monetary policy.

The Housing Starts figure reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. The number of housing starts is an indicator of the strength of Japan 's construction sector and a leading indicator for the direction of the economy as a whole. Housing Starts respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, promptly slowing at the onset of a recession and growing at the beginning of an economic boom. A high Housing Starts figure is generally bullish for the economy, as it indicates overall economic growth.

The headline figures are the year on year percentage change in value of housing starts, and the value of all houses started for construction that year.

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information current conditions in the housing market. The Index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices.
 

Press conference of the BoJ.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the Swiss economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of Swiss Gross Domestic Product. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in Germany.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

A comprehensive measure of Canada's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

The Employment Cost Index includes the wages and unemployment compensations.

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:30
National CPI Jul 1.7% 2.0%
Low
01:30
National CPI ex Fresh Food Jul 1.6% 1.8% 1.9%
Low
01:30
Unemployment Rate Jun 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%
Low
01:50
Industrial Production Jun 0.1%; -2.1% 0.7% 1.3%; 4.3%
Low
01:50
Retail Sales Jun 1.7%; 5.0% ; 2.8% -4.1%; 0.5%
Low
03:30
PMI Manufacturing Jul 50.3 50.1 49.2
Medium
03:30
Non-Manufacturing PMI Jul 50.2 50.0 49.0
Medium
03:30
Private Sector Credit Jun 0.7%; 8.2% 0.6% 0.8%; 8.5%
Low
03:30
Producer Price Index 2 quarter 0.4%; 3.0% 0.3% 1.3%; 3.6%
Low
05:11
BoJ MPC Interest Rate Announcement Jul 1.00% 1.00% 1.00%
High
05:11
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
High
05:11
BOJ Outlook Report
Medium
07:00
Housing Starts Jun 0.757M; 33.9% ; 12.8% 0.786M; 18.6%
Low
08:00
Nationwide House Price Index Jul 0.0%; 2.2% 0.1%; 1.9% 0.1%; 1.8%
Low
08:30
Bank of Japan Press Conference
High
08:30
Retail Sales Jun 3.4% 3.1% 1.5%
Low
08:45
Consumer Price Index Jul -0.3%; 1.8% 0.3%; 1.8% 0.6%; 2.1%
Low
09:55
Unemployment Change Jun -1K 5K 6K
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Rate Jun 6.3% 6.3% 6.4%
Medium
11:00
Consumer Price Index Jul 2.8% 2.9% 2.9%
Medium
11:00
Consumer Price Index Core Jul 2.4% 2.4% 2.5%
Medium
11:00
Gross Domestic Product Jul 0.0%; 3.0% 0.3%; 2.8% 0.2%; 2.8%
Low
14:30
Gross Domestic Product May 0.6%; 1.1% 0.2% 0.3%; 1.7%
High
14:30
Employment Cost Index 2 quarter 0.9% 0.8% 0.9%
Low
15:45
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Jul 56.7 55.9 57.6
Low
16:00
UoM Inflation Expectations Jul 4.2%; 3.3% 4.2%; 3.3% 4.2%; 3.3%
Low
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jul 587 588
Low

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