Monday, 26 June 2017 

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

The Ifo Business Climate Index is a closely followed leading indicator for economic activity in Germany prepared by the Ifo Institute for Economic Research in Munich. It is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as "good", "satisfactorily" or "poor" and their business expectations for the next six months as "more favourable", "unchanged" or "more unfavourable". The replies are weighted according to the importance of the industry and aggregated. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses "good" and "poor", the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses "more favourable" and "more unfavourable". The business climate is a mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (IFO - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Euro-zone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Euro-Zone GDP.

Consequently, the German IFO is a significant economic health indicator for the Euro-zone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low IFO readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

IFO Current Assessment
Measures current German business conditions, without considering future expectations.

IFO Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

One of the country's key business sentiment surveys (Ifo - Information and Forschung Survey). The survey is conducted monthly, querying German firms on the current German business climate as well as their expectations for the next six months. As the largest economy in the Eurozone, Germany is responsible for approximately a quarter of the total Eurozone GDP. Consequently, the German Ifo is a significant economic health indicator for the Eurozone as a whole. Positive readings bode well for the economy, suggesting increased consumer spending and economic growth. Conversely, low Ifo readings may be indicative of economic slowdown.

The index uses 100 as a centerline between positive and negative outlooks; the further the value is from 100 the stronger the sentiment. The survey presents two equally weighted sub-indices: Current Assessment and Business Expectations.

Ifo Expectations
Based on firms' expectations for the next six months, where firms rate the future outlook as better, same, or worse.

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.
 

Market impact tends to be greater when the report reveals a viewpoint that clashes with the ECB's stance. It contains relevant articles, speeches, statistical tables, and provides detailed analysis of current and future economic conditions from the bank's viewpoint.

The value of orders placed for relatively long-lasting goods. Durable Goods are expected to last more than three years. Such products often require large investments and usually reflect optimism on the part of the buyer that their expenditure will be worthwhile.

Because orders for goods have large sway over the actual production, this figure serves as an excellent forecast of US output to come. Durable Goods are typically sensitive to economic changes. When consumers become sceptical about economic conditions, sales of durable goods are one of the first to be impacted since consumers can delay purchases of durable items, like cars and televisions, only spending money on necessities in times of economic hardship. Conversely, when consumer confidence is restored, orders for durable goods rebound quickly.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
07:20
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks Jun
Low
10:00
Ifo Business Climate Jun 114.6 114.7 115.1
Medium
10:00
IFO - Current Assessment Jun 123.3 123.2 124.1
Medium
10:00
IFO - Expectations Jun 106.5 106.4 106.8
Medium
10:30
BBA Mortgage Approvals May 40.7K 40.3K 40.3K
Medium
12:00
Bundesbank Monthly Report Jun
Low
14:30
Durable Goods Orders May -0.9% m/m; -0.5% m/m -0.5% m/m; 0.4% m/m -1.1% m/m; 0.1% m/m
High
17:00
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks Jun
Medium
20:45
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks Jun
Medium
Tuesday, 27 June 2017 

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Guy Debelle is an assistant of RBA Governor since 2007. He is responsible for analysis of domestic and global financial markets as well as management of RBA's monetary reserves. His speech may have hints on further monetary policy stance and other changes in regulator's policy.
The Financial Stability Report is published twice a year under the guidance of the Financial Policy Committee. It covers the Committee's assessment of the outlook for the stability and resilience of the financial sector at the time of preparation of the Report, and the policy actions it advises to reduce and mitigate risks to stability.

An accurate early indicator of monthly retail sales in the U.K. CBI realized sales was first introduced in 1983 by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) and is based on the CBI's Distributive Trades Survey (DTS), which covers 20,000 outlets of firms responsible for a large component of the of retail sector.

Mark Joseph Carney is the current Governor of the Bank of England and the Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board. He was also the eighth Governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney achieved these positions by working his way up the ranks of Goldman Sachs, the Canadian Department of Finance, and the Bank of Canada as Deputy Governor.

The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices are the leading measures of U.S. residential real estate prices, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate both nationally as well as in 20 metropolitan regions.

Assesses regional manufacturing conditions for the Richmond Fed District. Based on mail-in surveys from a representative sample of manufacturing plants, the Richmond Fed Index seeks to track industrial performance. The report puts particular emphasis on inflationary pressures.

Though the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey is valued for its quick turnaround, it is still released after the ISM survey. As a result, the figure is often used to affirm or question the ISM report, and has little impact on markets. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey also asks manufacturing executives to stress price expectations. Some markets participants use this data as an early gauge to CPI and PPI reports released a few days later.

The headline figure is a three-month average, calculated by finding the percentage difference between positive and negative responses for the last three months, using a zero boom/bust centerline.

Note: The survey covers such topics as shipments, order volume, backlog volume, capacity utilization, vendor lead time, employees, average workweek, wages, inventory levels, and capital expenditures. The Fifth District includes the District of Columbia , Maryland , both Carolinas, and most of the Virginias.

CB Consumer Confidence is based on a monthly survey of about 5,000 U.S. households regarding their opinion of the economy. Traders should pay close attention to its release, which always has a strong impact on market prices. A higher reading than the market forecast is bullish for the dollar.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Janet Yellen a leading American economist, served as vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors since 2010 until becoming the first woman to become chair of the board in 2014. Some performances Yellen allow quite clearly form a clear picture of the future actions of the Fed. Her speeches are especially important before the next meeting of the FOMC.
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:45
Trade Balance May 536M; -3514M 420M; -3398M 103M; -3754M
Medium
10:00
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks Jun
High
10:30
RBA Assistant Governor Guy Debelle Speaks Jun
Medium
11:30
BOE Financial Stability Report Jun
Medium
12:00
CBI Realized Sales Jun 2 4 12
Low
12:00
BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks Jun
High
15:00
Case-Shiller 20 City Apr 5.9% y/y 5.9% y/y 5.7% y/y
Low
16:00
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Jun 1 4 7
Low
16:00
CB Consumer Confidence Jun 117.6 116.1 118.9
High
17:15
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks Jun
Medium
19:00
Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks Jun
High
23:30
FOMC Member Neel Kashkari Speaks Jun
Medium
Wednesday, 28 June 2017 

This index measures changes in the prices of imports into a country per month.

Index for consumer spending in Switzerland. The Consumption Indicator moves with changes in real consumer spending and can be used as a gauge of the strength of domestic demand. A rising indicator value reflects rising consumer spending, which generally leads to economic growth and potentially augur inflationary pressures to come.

The UBS Consumption Indicator is calculated using five specific indicators of spending and expressed in the form of an index. These indicators are: new car sales, business trends in retail, overnight hotel stays by Swiss nationals in Switzerland, the consumer sentiment index and credit card transactions.

The headline is the index value for the month. Because the index value is always positive, markets compare the current index value to the short and long-term average values in order to gauge Switzerland 's economic health. In the long term the average has been approximately 1.5, but may change with time.

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. Mortgage data is used to provide a timely measure of the level of prices. House prices give good information on current conditions on the housing market. The index can precurse broader inflationary pressures felt in later more market moving reports should housing price pressures feed into consumer prices.

A leading indicator of economic health, based on expectations of institutional investors and analysts. Level above zero reflects the prevalence of optimism, below - pessimism. Exceeding the previous level or the prognosis is favorable for the currency converter.

The broadest measure of money supply in use by Eurozone nations. It includes all currency in circulation, bank deposits, repurchase agreements, debt securities up to 2 years, and the value of money market shares. A larger money supply reduces the purchasing power of the Euro and puts downward pressure on the exchange rate. However, because an increase in M3 leads to price inflation, this figure can also be indicative of the likelihood of future interest rate hikes. The Eurozone M3 is reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month or as a Three Month Average, which smoothes monthly volatility in the money supply.

 

Borrowing and spending are positively correlated - consumers and businesses tend to seek credit when they are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. Change in the total value of new loans issued to consumers and businesses in the private sector.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Italy , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Italian household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Since July 2015, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis has started publishing preliminary estimate of goods trade balance. This release will be 4-7 earlier than trade balance data. Growth in the reading favors the US dollar.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

Mr. Poloz was appointed Governor of the Bank of Canada, effective 3 June 2013, for a term of seven years. As Governor, he is also Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank. Mr. Poloz has over 30 years of public and private sector experience in financial markets, forecasting and economic policy. Traders and investors listen to his speeches, as they may contain hints at change the course of monetary policy, or a change in the Bank's assessments of the economic outlook.

Mark Joseph Carney is the current Governor of the Bank of England and the Chairman of the G20's Financial Stability Board. He was also the eighth Governor of the Bank of Canada. Carney achieved these positions by working his way up the ranks of Goldman Sachs, the Canadian Department of Finance, and the Bank of Canada as Deputy Governor.

Mario Draghi is an Italian banker and economist who succeeded Jean-Claude Trichet as President of the European Central Bank on 1 November 2011.

Tracks residential housing contract activity of existing single-family homes. The Pending Home Sales report is an advanced read on trends in the US housing market. Housing is typically correlated to the overall state of the economy; particularly indicative of economic turning points. A sharp drop in housing demand typically acts as a warning signal of economic slowdown as buyers are reluctant to purchase houses when interest rates are high, disposable income is low, or consumer confidence is low. Conversely, a rebound in the housing market is often a leading indicator of an economic recovery.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change in pending home sales from previous month.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
08:00
Import Price Index May -0.1% m/m; 6.1% y/y -0.6% m/m; 4.6% y/y -1.0% m/m; 4.1% y/y
Low
08:00
UBS Consumption Indicator May 1.34 1.39
Low
08:00
Nationwide House Price Index Jun -0.2% m/m; 2.1% y/y 0.1% m/m; 1.9% y/y 1.1% m/m; 3.1% y/y
Low
10:00
Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) Jun 30.8 20.7
Low
10:00
M3 Money Supply May 4.9% y/y 5.0% y/y 5.0% y/y
Medium
10:00
Private Loans May 2.4% y/y 2.5% y/y 2.6% y/y
Low
11:00
Consumer Price Index Jun -0.2% m/m; 1.4% y/y 0.1% m/m; 1.3% y/y -0.1% m/m; 1.2% y/y
Low
11:00
Harmonized CPI Jun -0.1% m/m; 1.6% y/y 0.0% m/m; 1.4% y/y -0.2% m/m; 1.2% y/y
Low
14:30
Goods Trade Balance May -67.6bln -66.2bln
Medium
15:30
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks Jun
High
15:30
BOC Governor Stephen Poloz Speaks Jun
High
15:30
BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks Jun
High
15:30
ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks Jun
High
16:00
Pending Home Sales May -1.3% m/m; -5.4% y/y 0.9% m/m
Medium
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Jun -2451K -2100K
Medium
Thursday, 29 June 2017 

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

The results of the ANZ Bank Business survey held among businesses nationwide.

The estimate measures consumer confidence. The estimate growth commonly has a positive effect on the currency rate.

The German group GfK uses this report to show the results of their survey on business consumer confidence in order to gauge the health of the German economy. It is a leading indicator of economic strength.

The Consumer Price Index's (CPI) Flash Estimate measures the inflation rate incurred by consumers when purchasing goods and services. It typically carries a significant impact as traders depend on this information for a glimpse into inflationary pressures and its impact on the nation's currency.

Number of new mortgages approved for home purchase by BBA-represented banks during the previous month. The BBA represents major banks that make up around 60% of total UK mortgage lending.
 

The amount of extra funds that a sector has available to provide for either direct and indirect lending purposes to other similar counter-parts.

 

 

Consumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Eurozone economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Italian economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Jens Weidmann is a German economist and president of the Deutsche Bundesbank.Statements of the German representatives always attracts attention as their opinion is very ponderable.
In addition to the Consumer Price Index for Germany (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index, the Federal Statistical Office has calculated for European purposes a Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for Germany since 1997. For the HICP, time series from January 1995 are available. The HICP is used to measure inflation in the context of international, mostly inner-European comparisons. Its calculation, which relies on harmonised concepts, methods and procedures, reflects the development of prices in the individual states based on national consumption patterns. The HICP serves, among other things, to measure the convergence criterion of "price stability" as a basis for judging whether a Member State can participate in European economic and monetary union. The HICP is calculated for the Member States of the European Union (EU), Norway, Iceland and Switzerland. It is used to form aggregates for the euro zone (Monetary Union Index of Consumer Prices - MUICP), for the EU (European Index of Consumer Prices - EICP), and for the European Economic Area (European Economic Area Index of Consumer Prices - EEAICP). The European Central Bank makes use of the MUICP in the context of its monetary policy to judge price stability within the euro zone.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Measures changes in the prices of goods and services that are included in US GDP. The GDP Price Index is an indicator for inflation calculated by comparing the current GDP to GDP in the reference year. A high or rising GDP Price Index, like other indicators of inflation, puts pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates.

The GDP price index differs from other more popular inflation measures like CPI, in that it includes all products accounted for by GDP and does not include the affects of changes in import prices. Furthermore, the report is only released quarterly and commands little market attention because of it lack of timeliness.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change.

It's the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. While this is q/q data, it's reported in an annualized format (quarterly change x4). There are 3 versions of GDP released a month apart – Advance, Preliminary, and Final.
James Bullard is the chief executive officer and 12th president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, positions he has held since 2008. He is currently serving a term that began on March 1, 2011. In 2014, he was named the 7th most influential economist in the world.
Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:50
Retail Sales May 1.4% m/m; 3.2% y/y -1.0% m/m; 2.6% y/y
Low
03:00
ANZ Business Confidence Jun 14.9
Medium
03:00
HIA New Home Sales May 0.8% m/m
Low
08:00
GfK Consumer Climate Jul 10.4 10.4
Low
09:00
Consumer Price Index Flash Jun 1.9% y/y 1.6% y/y
Low
10:30
Mortgage Approvals May 4.3bln 4.0bln
Medium
10:30
Net Lending to Individuals May 4.3bln 4.0bln
Medium
11:00
Consumer Confidence Jun -1.3 -1.3
Low
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Jun 0.72%; 1.76
Low
11:30
ECB's Jens Weidmann Speaks Jun
Low
14:00
Prelim Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised Jun -0.2% m/m; 1.4% y/y
Medium
14:00
CPI Jun -0.2% m/m; 1.5% y/y 0.0% m/m; 1.4% y/y
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Jun 1944K 1932K
Medium
14:30
Unemployment Claims Jun 241K 240K
High
14:30
GDP Price Index 1 quarter 2.2% q/q 2.2% q/q
Low
14:30
Final GDP 1 quarter 1.2% q/q 1.2% q/q
Medium
19:00
FOMC Member James Bullard Speaks Jun
Low
Friday, 30 June 2017 

Consumer Confidence measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion. The report also breaks down results into parts of the economy, giving a detailed picture of the consumer climate in Great Britain. GfK Consumer Confidence is one of the most closely watched surveys. The survey results are quantified into index where 0 represents long term Consumer Confidence averages. The headline figure is expressed in percentage change. On a global basis, the indicator is very important for the economy, as it reflects consumers sentiments which formed the major portion of Great Britain GDP. The survey is conducted monthly by GfK, a market research organization, on behalf of the EU commission.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

An indicator of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo, excluding such volatile item as fresh food.

An indicator of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo, excluding such volatile item as fresh food.

Measures the rate of inflation experienced by consumers living in Tokyo on a fixed basket of goods and services. The change is calculated monthly. This reading is important because it measures the inflation in the country’s largest city. Due to the fact that Tokyo is a smaller population to survey than for the national CPI this figure can be released roughly one month before the national figure. Therefore it is a leading inflationary indicator. The volatile item excluded in a separate derivative of this report is fresh food.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

National Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the key gauge for inflation in Japan. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Yen, where each Yen buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical Japanese household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Yen to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Markets will typically pay more attention to "CPI excluding Fresh Food," because it excludes volatile food prices that can distort overall CPI. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in the index on a month to month or year to year basis.

As the most important indicator of inflation, CPI figures are closely followed by the Bank of Japan. Rising Consumer Prices may prompt the BoJ to raise interest rates in order to manage inflation and slow economic growth. Higher interest rates make holding the Yen more attractive to foreign investors, and this higher level of demand will place upward pressure on the value of the Yen.

A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. The headline figure is the percentage change in average spending per household from the previous year. Increases in household spending are favorable for the Japanese economy because high consumer spending generally leads to higher levels of economic growth. Higher spending is also a sign of consumer optimism, as households confident in their future outlook will spend more. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future.

This is a measure of the change in the total value of output produced by manufacturers and other facilities after being adjusted for inflation.

The official non-manufacturing PMI, released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP), is based on a survey of about 1,200 companies covering 27 industries including construction, transport and telecommunications. It is the level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the services industry and if it is above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below, indicates contraction.

A monthly gauge of manufacturing activity and future outlook. The CIPS PMI is comparable to the US ISM survey, similarly based on the opinions of executives in manufacturing companies. Purchasing managers are tasked with gauging future demand, and adjusting orders for materials accordingly. The PMI summarizes the opinions of these executives to give a picture of the future of the manufacturing sector. A higher PMI indicates that materials purchases are increasing and that the economic outlook is positive. Alternately, a lower PMI means orders for materials are down and the future outlook is less favorable. By nature, the figure is very sensitive to the business cycle and tends to match growth or decline in the economy as a whole.

The PMI is presented as an index with a value between 1-100.

Private Sector Credit released by the Reserve Bank of Australia is an amount of money that the Australian private sector borrows.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy since private consumption makes up a large portion of German Gross Domestic Product. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted goods expenditures by consumers.

The Swiss KOF Economic Barometer is a leading indicator which measures overall economic activity and is an excellent indicator of the direction of the Swiss economy. The KOF Economic Barometer is one or two quarters ahead of the GDP growth rate of the previous year and thus enables an initial estimate to be made of how the Swiss economy will perform in the next or in the next two quarters.

The Barometer is ultimately adjusted to take account of seasonal fluctuations and random factors. The Barometer is published monthly.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

German Unemployment Change measures the change in the number of unemployed people during the previous month. A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR, while lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR.

The change in capital expenditures made by private firms. Businesses only invest when they are optimistic about future economic growth and expect a profitable return on their investments. Because of this, increased capital expenditures usually reflect a higher level of consumer demand that induces companies to expand their productive capacity. Current Business Investment usually allow for higher GDP in the future. For these reasons Business Investment may lead economic growth.

The headline number is the percentage change in investment from the previous quarter.

The index tracks activity in services sector.

An indicator for broad overall growth in the United Kingdom. Robust UK GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity, and therefore a high demand for currency. Economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressure, which generally prompts monetary authorities to increase interest rates. This means that positive GDP readings are generally bullish for a given currency, while negative readings are bearish.

Due to the untimeliness of this report and because data on GDP components are available beforehand, the actual GDP figure is usually well anticipated. But given its overall significance GDP has the tendency to move the market upon release, acting to confirm or upset economic expectations. Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of activity that is generally associated with a healthy economy. However economic expansion also raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead to monetary policy tightening.

The headline figure for UK GDP is an annualized percentage growth rate.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)
where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

Technical note : GDP is the total market value of goods and services produced in the U.K. within a given period after deducting the cost of goods and services used up in the process of production. Therefore, GDP excludes intermediate goods and services and considers final aggregates only.

The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. The report acts as a line-item record of how the domestic economy interacts with rest of the world. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking goods and services.

Consumer prices account for a majority of overall inflation. Inflation is important to currency valuation because rising prices lead the central bank to raise interest rates out of respect for their inflation containment mandate. Eurostat bases this estimate on 13 euro area member states that report early CPI data. There are 2 versions of this report released about two weeks apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release, which the source first reported in Apr 2013, is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.

The Consumer Price Index's (CPI) Flash Estimate measures the inflation rate incurred by consumers when purchasing goods and services. It typically carries a significant impact as traders depend on this information for a glimpse into inflationary pressures and its impact on the nation's currency.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Broad gauge of employee earnings in the US . Personal Income measures the pre-tax income households receive from employment, investments, and transfer payments. As wages and salaries make up the majority of Personal Income, the figure can provide insight on the US employment situation. However, because Personal Income is released after the headline employment figure and earnings figures, its impact on the market is muted. The figure is still useful in gauging the purchasing ability of consumers, though, as rising Personal Income allows for strong consumers spending. Such spending drives output growth and fuels the US economy.

Comprehensive measure of how much consumers spend each month, counting expenditures on durable goods, consumer products, and services. Personal Consumption is a comprehensive measure of GDP; consequently the figure is watched as an indicator for economic trends. Spending also has direct affect on inflationary pressures.

A healthy Personal Spending figure means that consumers are buying goods and services, fueling the economy and spurring output growth. The report is particularly valued for forecasting inflationary pressures. Taken in excess these high levels of consumption and production may lead to an overall increase in prices. Indeed, the Fed uses a measure of inflation derived from the PCE as their primary gauge of inflation.

On the other hand, persistently low Personal Spending may result in decreasing levels of output and an economic downturn.

Because income is either spent or saved, Personal Spending (when reported as a percent of income rather than the headline percent change) has an inverse relationship to personal saving. Economists watch the growth of Personal Spending in relation to income and saving to determine if consumers are living beyond their means, which would influence levels of borrowing and future consumption.

The PCE figure is released in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

The "core" PCE price index is defined as personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices excluding food and energy prices. The core PCE price index measures the prices paid by consumers for goods and services without the volatility caused by movements in food and energy prices to reveal underlying inflation trends. Food prices consist of those included in the PCE category of “food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption.” Prices included in the PCE category “food services and accommodations” are not included in the “food” price index because these services prices tend to be far less volatile than those for food commodities such as meats, fresh vegetables and fruits. Energy prices consist of those included in the PCE categories of “gasoline and other energy goods” and of “electricity and gas” utilities.

Industrial Product Price Index released by the Statistics Canada measures price changes for major commodities sold by Canadian manufactures. Changes in the IPP index are widely followed as an indicator of commodity inflation.

The Raw Materials Price Index (RMPI) measures price changes for raw materials purchased by industries in Canada for further processing. As a purchasers' price index, prices include all charges purchasers incur to bring a commodity to the establishment gate. They include transportation charges, net taxes paid, custom duties, as well as subsidies, if applicable.

A comprehensive measure of Canada's overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP is a significant report in FX Market, serving as one of the primary indicators of a country's overall economic health.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may prompt monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus positive GDP readings are generally bullish for the Canadian Dollar, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Most production reports that lead to Canadian GDP are released before the official GDP number. Therefore, actual GDP figures usually confirm expectations. However, an unexpected release can move markets due to the significance of the figure.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where
C = private consumption
I = private investment
G = government expenditure
EX = exports of goods and services
IM = imports of goods and services

The headline figures for GDP are the percentage growth rate from the previous quarter and the annualized percentage change in GDP. Prices used are benchmarked to 1997 prices.

Monthly measure of the business conditions based on surveys of purchasing managers across Illinois, Indiana and Michigan. Released on the last business day of the reporting month, the report's significance has recently declined, with its only significance being that it precedes the more anticipated ISM report. Subsequently, it is used to predict the ISM report as the Chicago survey retains a high correlation with the broader economic release.

Referring to a benchmark of 50, the report is considered to reflect expansion when printing a reading of 50 or higher. Conversely, a reading of 49 and lower would be indicative of contraction.

Survey of about 500 consumers which asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Preliminary release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this data released about 15 days apart – Preliminary and Revised. The Preliminary release is the earliest and thus tends to have more impact.

The Senior Loan Officer Survey collects information on the business-lending practices of Canadian financial institutions. In particular, the Survey gathers the perspectives of respondents on price and non-price terms of business lending and on topical issues of interest to the Bank of Canada. The survey is conducted quarterly, near the end of the quarter for which the results are reported.

The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:01
GfK Consumer Confidence Jun -5 -7
Low
01:30
Unemployment Rate May 2.8% 2.8%
Low
01:30
Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food and Energy Jun 0.0% y/y 0.1% y/y
Low
01:30
Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food Jun 0.1% y/y 0.2% y/y
Low
01:30
Tokyo CPI Jun 0.2% y/y 0.3% y/y
Low
01:30
National CPI ex fresh food and energy May 0.0% y/y 0.1% y/y
Medium
01:30
National CPI ex Fresh Food May 0.3% y/y 0.4% y/y
Medium
01:30
National CPI May 0.4% y/y 0.5% y/y
High
01:30
Household Spending May -1.4% y/y -0.4% y/y
Low
01:50
Prelim Industrial Production May 4.0% m/m; 5.7% y/y -2.9% m/m; 6.8% y/y
Low
03:00
Non-Manufacturing PMI Jun 54.5
Medium
03:00
PMI Manufacturing Jun 51.2 51.0
High
03:30
Private Sector Credit May 0.4% m/m; 4.9% y/y 0.4% m/m; 5.0% y/y
Low
08:00
Retail Sales May -0.2% m/m; -0.9% y/y 0.3% m/m; 2.8% y/y
Medium
08:45
Consumer Price Index Jun 0.0% m/m; 0.8% y/y 0.0% m/m
Low
08:45
Consumer Spending May 0.5% m/m 0.5% m/m
Low
09:00
KOF Economic Barometer Jun 101.6 102.6
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Rate Jun 5.7% 5.7%
Medium
09:55
Unemployment Change Jun -9K -10K
Medium
10:30
Business Investment 1 quarter 0.6% q/q; 0.8% y/y 0.6% q/q; 0.8% y/y
Low
10:30
Index of Services Apr 0.2% 3m/3m; 0.2% m/m 0.3% 3m/3m; 0.2% m/m
Low
10:30
GDP Final 1 quarter 0.2% q/q; 2.0% y/y 0.2% q/q; 2.0% y/y
Medium
10:30
Current Account 1 quarter -12.1bln -16.5bln
High
11:00
Flash Core CPI Jun 0.9% y/y 1.0% y/y
Medium
11:00
Consumer Price Index Flash Estimate Jun 1.4% y/y 1.3% y/y
Medium
11:00
10-y Bond Auction Jun 2.15%; 1.49
Low
14:30
Personal Income May 0.4% m/m 0.3% m/m
Low
14:30
Personal Spending May 0.4% m/m 0.1% m/m
Medium
14:30
Core PCE Price Index May 0.2% m/m; 1.5% y/y 0.1% m/m; 1.4% y/y
Medium
14:30
Industrial Product Price Index May 0.6% m/m
Low
14:30
Raw Materials Price Index May 1.6% m/m
Medium
14:30
Gross Domestic Product Apr 0.5% m/m; 3.2% y/y 0.2% m/m; 3.3% y/y
High
15:45
Chicago Purchasing Manager Index Jun 59.4 58.2
Medium
16:00
Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment Jun 94.5 94.6
Medium
16:30
Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer 2 quarter -1.85
Medium
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jun 941
Low
Monday, 03 July 2017 

An economic survey of Japanese business issued by the central Bank of Japan, which it then uses to formulate monetary policy. The report is released four times a year in April, July, October and mid-December.

Reflects the prevailing sentiment of firms in the service sector on current business conditions. Business confidence among non-manufacturing firms, which conduct most of their business within Japan, reflects both the strength of domestic demand and the health of the non-export sector. The Non-Manufacturing Index is also important as a measure of overall economic health.

The Tankan large Manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Manufacturing sector for the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The TanKan Non-manufacturing Outlook released by the Bank of Japan shows forecasts of the growth in the Non-Manufacturing sector in the next quarter. It is considered as an indicator of future business expectations. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Tankan Large All Industry Capital Expenditure released by the Bank of Japan measures capital expenditure (capex) of all the Japanese industries except the financial industry. The Capex is considered as an early indicator of productively growth. A high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the JPY, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
Time Country Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:30
AIG Manufacturing Index Jun 54.8
Low
01:50
Tankan Manufacturing Index 2 quarter 12
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index 2 quarter 20
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook 3 quarter 11
Medium
01:50
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook 3 quarter 16
Medium
01:50
Tankan Large All Industry Capex 2 quarter 0.6%
Medium

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