Economic Calendar

The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month.

SECO Consumer Climate compiles a survey of consumer attitudes on present economic conditions and expectations of future conditions. In the months of January, April, July and October, about 1100 households are surveyed on behalf of SECO regarding their subjective evaluation of the economic situation, budget situation, inflation, job security etc.

The pattern in consumer attitudes and spending is often a major influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. Consumer spending accounts for a major portion of the Swiss economy, so investors want to know what consumers are up to and how they might behave in the near future. The more confident consumers are about the economy and their own personal finances, the more likely they are to spend.

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts. Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone.
 

A monthly survey of 1,500 businesses conducted by the National Bank of New Zealand. The purpose is to measures the mood in regard to future economic expectations.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Consumer Sentiment (or Consumer Confidence) measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion.

The value of all outstanding loans with Japanese banks. Bank lending is important because lending increases with increased business confidence and investment. It is particularly insightful for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector. The headline number is for total loans and discounts and is a percentage change from the previous year.

The BRC  Retail Sales Monitor is an accurate monthly measure of retail sales performance that acts as both a benchmark for participating retailers and as a key economic indicator.

The RSM measures changes in the actual value of retail sales based on figures supplied directly by participating members. Originally set up at the request of BRC members to benchmark their own business performance against the wider sector, the BRC  Retail Sales Monitor is an authoritative measure on the health of the UK retail sector and the wider economy.

The Economy Watchers Survey asks business-cycle sensitive workers their thoughts on existing and future economic conditions, giving a detailed picture of economic trends in Japan . The survey is based on questionnaires from 'man on the street' sectors that are particularly vulnerable to business cycle turns. These segments of the economy include sectors such as retail, restaurant service and taxi driving. With this combined data the Japanese Eco Watchers report serves as both a consumer confidence indicator and a leading indicator for the rest of the economy. The report is usually released less than two weeks after the reporting month, thus its statistics are usually very timely. The headline number is released where 50 represents the center midpoint line of boom/bust sentiment.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Records sales of newly constructed residences in the United States. The figure is a timely gauge of housing market conditions counting home sales when initial housing contracts are signed. Because New Home Sales usually trigger a sequence of consumption, they have significant market impact upon release. In addition to the high expenditure of the new home, buyers are likely to spend more money on furnishing customizing and financing their home. Consequently, growth in the housing market spurs more consumption, generating demand for goods, services and the employees who provide them.

Generally, the housing market is tracked by a number of reports that mark different stages of the construction and home sale process. The first stage is Building Permits, which precede Housing Starts, which lead to Construction Spending, MBA Mortgage Applications and, finally, New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales. As the headline housing figure, New Home Sales are believed to control some of the volatility of other data. For instance, Building Permits and Housing Starts are considered more indicative of business confidence and production rather than consumer spending. And while Existing Home Sales figures are more indicative of consumer expenditures, they are lagging indicators with less predictive value. New Home Sales numbers are considered confirmatory of housing trends and still predictive of consumer spending.

New Home Sales is also a good indicator of economic turning points due to its sensitivity to consumer income. Buying a house is always a major expenditure, typically only undertaken when consumers have sufficient savings or are optimistic about future earnings. Historically, when economic conditions slow, New Home Sales are one of the first indicators to reflect the change. By the same token, New Home Sales undergo substantial growth when the economy has emerged from recession and wages have begun to pick up.

The report headline is the total amount of properties sold.

This is a report which measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction New Zealand . Building Consents, or Building Permits, are issued when a building project has been authorized to begin construction. Since Building Consents serve as one of the earliest signals of expanded housing supply, the report is a leading indicator for the overall housing market. Also, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects Building Permits suggests optimism for corporate or consumer spending. Lastly, housing indicators are popular leading indicators due to the multiplier effect that they have on the rest of the economy. The headline is the percentage change in new consents for the month.

Note: When looking deeper into the report it is important to analyze in detail what the type of projects the consents are for, as Building Consents include residential housing as well as 'big-ticket' non-residential buildings and government projects that can create large gyrations in the report month to month.

Measure of the money supply used by the Bank of Japan. The figure includes all currency in circulation plus all bank deposits. This indicator tends to be tracked closely with the total money supply. The figure focuses mostly on individual deposit accounts rather than institutional accounts, making it a more attractive money indicator than broad liquidity measures. The headline figure is the percentage change from the previous year.

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ)Commodity Prices Indicator, also called the Commoditiy Price Index, measures the change in the price of exported commodities. Since Australia and New Zealand depend heavily upon commodity exports, this figure acts as a primary gauge of the two nations' GDP and economic strength.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

This is a report which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

The Current Account index measures the difference in value between exported and imported goods, services and interest payments during the reported month. The goods portion is the same as the monthly Trade Balance figure. Because foreigners must buy the domestic currency to pay for the nation's exports the data can have a sizable affect on the USD.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Records sales of previously owned homes in the United States . This report provides a fairly accurate assessment of housing market conditions, and because of the sensitivity of the housing market to business cycle twists, it can be an important indicator of overall conditions at times when housing is particularly important to the economy.

While used home sales are not counted in GDP, they do affect the United States economy. Sellers of used homes often use capital gains from property sales on consumption that stimulate the economy. Higher levels of consumer spending may also increase inflationary pressures, even as they help grow the economy.

The existing home sales report is not as timely as other housing indicators like New Home Sales or Building Permits. By the time the Existing Home Sales are recorded, market conditions may have changed.

The headline is the total value of properties sold.

Unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.

Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow down, retailers' inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.

Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .

While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories' lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covering the entire US. Regional Banks in the Federal Reserve System gather anecdotal information based on surveys of executives, economist and market participants. The Beige Book summarizes this data into a relatively short document, giving a picture of economic trends and challenges faced by different parts of the nation.

In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. Because each report is based on anecdotal information as much as statistics, it is subjective and may reflect opinions of district governors. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

A Japanese index that measures the prices of goods created by firms at the producer and wholesaler level in Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) tracks changes in supply side prices within the Japanese economy. Changes in the CGPI often precede changes in the overall Consumer Price Index, as input values determine the overall retail values of the consumer goods. Thus, a large increase in the domestic CGPI will lead to a large increase in the overall CPI.

The percent by which, according to consumers expectations, the prices for goods and services will change over the next 12 months.

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. The figure is based on surveyors' opinions on the state of the market, calculated as is the percent of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall. A rise in house prices indicates a strong housing market, which generally reflects a strong overall economy.

A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output. It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product. A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.

Index demonstrates the situation in the construction sector; it shows output of products and business activity sizes in this sigment of economy.

The index tracks activity in services sector.

Measures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.

The volume of loans granted in yuan during a month. The indicator's growth means stronger activity. The sharp increase of the indicator may triger tighter monetary policy.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Italy. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Italian industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

As part of its mission to maintain monetary stability and financial stability, the Bank needs to understand trends and developments in credit conditions. This survey for bank and non-bank lenders is an input to this work. Lenders are asked about the past three months and the coming three months. The survey covers secured and unsecured lending to households and small businesses; and lending to non-financial corporations, and to non-bank financial firms.

Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Eurozone GDP. However, most variations in the GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.

  The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. The report acts as a line-item record of how the domestic economy interacts with rest of the world. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking good and services.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

It is a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions. Conducted since 1968, the "Philly Fed" survey is an established report, valued for its timeliness, scope of coverage and tendency to forecast developments in the market moving ISM Manufacturing figure.

Higher Philadelphia Fed Survey figures indicate a positive outlook from manufacturers suggesting increased production. Higher production contributes to economic growth, which is generally bullish for the dollar.

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the centerline point.

  Survey assessing business conditions and expectations of manufacturing executives in New York . Though the survey is relatively new and New York has a considerably small number of manufacturers, the report has shown a promising correlation to the Philadelphia Fed Index and the market moving ISM Manufacturing Survey. Thus Empire serves as a useful earlier indicator of overall manufacturing in the US .

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the breakeven point. A high figure is bullish for the dollar, indicating positive business sentiment conducive to growth in production. A low or negative number signals poor business conditions.

This index reflects import price change per month.

CManufacturing Shipments - also known as "shipments of goods of own manufacture" - report the production of goods produced by Canadian establishments in the "Manufacturing Sector (NAICS 31-33)". It measures the Dollar value, not the quantity of manufactured goods produced.

The value of sales made by Canadian wholesalers. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption and the economy. The headline figure reports the monthly percentage change in Wholesale Sales, seasonally adjusted to account for variations in demand due to seasonal cycles.

These sectors are farm products, food, beverages, and tobacco products, personal and household goods, automotive products, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment etc.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.

A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.

Индикатор активности в производстве. Аналог Manufacturing PMI. Показывает улучшение (>50) или ухудшение (<50) ситуации в сравнении с предыдущим месяцем. Рост показателя либо превышение прогноза благоприятны для валюты.

Measures the price change of food and food services purchased by households. Higher food prices can result in economic slowdown because less disposable income will be used for non-food expenditures. Higher food prices can also result in inflation and signal future monetary action.

Higher domestic food prices may also suggest higher food prices internationally. New Zealand 's economy is largely based on producing and exporting agricultural goods and food products. Therefore, the Food Price Index can reflect demand for New Zealand products and for the New Zealand dollar. A higher reading may suggest a strengthening of the Dollar as foreigners pay relatively more for New Zealand 's exports.

The headline number is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.

Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds, and money market funds to and from Canada.

Measures changes in the volume of output produced by the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors in the USA. Because industrial production is a measure of output volume rather than dollar value, the figure is not distorted by inflation and is considered a more "pure" indicator for US industry. Though industrial production only accounts for a relatively small portion of the GDP, it accounts for most of the volatility in GDP and is considered highly sensitive to changes in interest rate and consumer demand. Therefore understanding trends in this figure are important to forecasting the GDP. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The figure varies significantly month to month due to the fact that seasonal and weather related factors often alter factory production and utility demand. Because of this volatility, the report has limited market impact.

The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months.

The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output. It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product. A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.

Capacity Utilization measures the extent to which US manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens. High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.

A timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.

As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect 'big ticket' items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month. The NAHB Housing Market Index divides the Single-Family Sales data into three categories: Present, Next 6 Months and Prospective Buyers Traffic.