Monday, 06 July 2020 

The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group Limited (ANZ)Commodity Prices Indicator, also called the Commoditiy Price Index, measures the change in the price of exported commodities. Since Australia and New Zealand depend heavily upon commodity exports, this figure acts as a primary gauge of the two nations' GDP and economic strength.

This data provides a monthly look at consumer inflation and is designed to mimic the quarterly government-released CPI data. Full reports are only available to Melbourne Institute subscribers.

The ANZ job advertisement series measures the number of jobs advertised in the major daily newspapers and Internet sites covering the capital cities each month.

Dollar volume of new orders, shipments, unfilled orders and inventories as reported by domestic manufacturers. Factory Orders is not a widely watched economic release.

Factor Orders does provide a comprehensive look at the manufacturing sector. Specifically, the New Orders figure can act as a gauge of demand across industries while Shipments are indicative of supply. The Unfilled Orders and Inventory figures reconcile the balance between New Orders and Shipments; high Shipments are indicative of an excess of demand relative to supply, high Inventories signal an excess of supply over demand.

Figures are reported in billions of dollars and also in percent change from the previous month.

On a Technical Note: The New Orders figure measures the value of orders received by manufacturers for new products from both domestic and foreign sources. The total value of products shipped is calculated in Shipments while Unfilled Orders measures the value of goods backlogged for order but not yet shipped. Lastly, Inventories gauges the amount of unsold goods held by manufacturers.

The Construction Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the level of activity among purchasing managers in the construction sector of the economy. Above 50 signals industry expansion; below 50 indicates a contraction. Construction figures are an important indicator of housing demand.

Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed investors and analysts. Above 0.0 indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. This is a survey of about 2,800 investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for the Eurozone.
 

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

It's a leading indicator of economic health - businesses react quickly to market conditions, and their purchasing managers hold perhaps the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy. Above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction. The 'Previous' listed is the 'Actual' from the Flash release and therefore the 'History' data will appear unconnected. There are 2 versions of this report released about a week apart – Flash and Final. The Flash release is the earliest and thus tends to have the most impact.
An index level of 50 denotes no change since the previous month, while a level above 50 signals an increase or improvement, and below 50 indicates a decrease or deterioration.

ISM Non-Manufacturing gauge of business conditions in non-manufacturing industries, based on measures of employment trends, prices and new orders. Though non-manufacturing sectors make up the majority of the economy, the ISM Non-Manufacturing has less market impact because non-manufacturing data tends to be more cyclical and predictable. However, these sectors do account for a considerable portion of CPI. As a result, the figure gives insight into conditions which can impact output growth and inflationary pressures.

The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is based on a sample survey of purchasing and supply executives, weighted according to industry contribution to GDP. The Index is calculated using 50% as the centerline between positive and negative expectations; the figure is reported in headlines as the percent change.

Note: There are 10 separate indexes reported, but Business Activity is considered the most important. The other nine indexes are: New Orders, Supplier Deliveries, Employment, Inventories, Prices, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, and Inventory Sentiment.

Indicator of the balance of opinions on the economic prospects of the Bank of Canada. Reflects sentiments regarding the outlook for the future of economic activity. May affect the Bank of Canada's opinion on the rate decision.

The decision to increase, decrease, or maintain the bank set interest rate. A decision to lower rates can spur economic growth while inciting inflationary pressures, whereas rate increases tend to slow down inflation but stymie growth. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1-3%, and they change interest rates accordingly to meet that goal. The Bank of Canada's rate decision has significant influence on financial markets. Changes in rates have direct impact on interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages and bond rates. The BOC issues a statement with every rate announcement. Because the decision itself is usually highly anticipated, the wording of the BOC statement is usually as important if not even more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank. The statement contains the Bank's collective outlook on the economy as well as hints about future monetary policy while the change to interest rates is nothing more than a number. The statement provides clues on plans for the future. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
03:00
ANZ Commodity Prices Jun 1.1% -0.7%
Low
03:00
MI Inflation Gauge Jun -1.2% m/m; 0.1% y/y 0.6% m/m; 0.7% y/y
Low
03:30
ANZ Jobs Advertisements Jun -0.3% 42.0%
Low
08:00
Factory Orders May -26.2% m/m; -36.9% y/y 15.1% m/m; -28.0% y/y 10.4% m/m; -29.3% y/y
Low
10:30
Construction PMI Jun 28.9 46.0 55.3
Medium
10:30
Housing Equity Withdrawal 1 quarter -5.0bln -5.1bln
Low
10:30
Sentix Investor Confidence Jul -24.8 -10.8 -18.2
Low
11:00
Retail Sales May -12.1% m/m; -19.6% y/y 15.0% m/m; -7.5% y/y 17.8% m/m; -5.1% y/y
Low
15:45
Final Services PMI Jun 46.7 46.7 47.9
Low
15:45
Composite PMI Jun 46.8 46.8 47.9
Low
16:00
ISM Non-Manf. Jun 45.4 50.0 57.1
High
16:30
Overview of business prospects, according to the Bank of Canada 2 quarter -0.51 -7.0
Medium
16:30
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 2 quarter 22 -35
Low
Tuesday, 07 July 2020 

A monthly survey of 1,500 businesses conducted by the National Bank of New Zealand. The purpose is to measures the mood in regard to future economic expectations.

Tracks monthly developments in the Australian services sector, condensing data into an overall boom or bust index. The composite index is based on the surveys for sales, new orders, employment, inventories and deliveries, compiled by American International Group. The AIG Performance of Service Index excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be volatile and seasonal, giving a clean picture of Australia's service sector that accounts for a majority of Aussie GDP. The headline number uses a 50 baseline; readings above 50 signify growth, while those below 50 show contraction in the services sector.

A survey of both wage-earning and non-working households, such as those classified as single-member, unemployed, or retired. The headline figure is the percentage change in average spending per household from the previous year. Increases in household spending are favorable for the Japanese economy because high consumer spending generally leads to higher levels of economic growth. Higher spending is also a sign of consumer optimism, as households confident in their future outlook will spend more. At the same time accelerated growth exerts inflationary pressure, which can lead to interest rate increases in the future.

The average amount of pre-tax earnings per regular employee, including overtime pay and bonuses.

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
The Reserve Bank sets the target 'cash rate', which is the market interest rate on overnight funds. It uses this as the instrument for monetary policy, and influences the cash rate through its financial market operations. Decisions regarding the cash rate target are made by the Reserve Bank Board and explained in a media release announcing the decision at 2.30 pm after each Board meeting.

The RBA Monetary Policy Statement released by the Reserve bank of Australia reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth. It is considered as a clear guide to the future RBA interest rate policy. Any changes in this report affect the AUD volatility. If the RBA statement shows a hawkish outlook, that is seen as positive (or bullish) for the AUD, while a dovish outlook is seen as negatvie (or bearish).

This index is designed to predict the direction of the economy, but it tends to have a muted impact because most of the indicators used in the calculation are released previously. There's a revised version of this indicator released about 10 days later, but it's not included for lack of significance. Source changed series from a diffusion index to a composite index as of Jun 2008. Combined reading of 11 economic indicators related to employment, production, new orders, consumer confidence, housing, stock prices, money supply, and interest rate spreads.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Germany. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of German industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Euro. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

This is the amount of foreign currency reserves that are held by the Central Bank of a country. In general use, foreign currency reserves also include gold and IMF reserves. Also, people may take into account liquid assets that can easily be converted into foreign currency.

A resumptive index of house prices reflecting prices for new constructions and resale real estate markets. As all indices connected with the construction industry it can be seasonally adjusted. The Halifax House Price Index is the UK's longest running monthly house price series with data covering the whole country going back to January 1983.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Economic forecasts concentrate on the EU, its individual member states, and the euro area but also include outlooks for some of the world's other major economies, and countries that are candidates for EU membership. ECFIN's forecasts are published three times a year in sync with the EU's annual cycle of economic surveillance procedures, known as the European Semester.

Survey of small businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including labor markets, inventories and sales, capital spending, inflation, earnings and wages, and credit markets.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.

The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) is an economic index which measures the month to month variation in economic activity as indicated by a panel of purchasing managers from across Canada, and is prepared by the Richard Ivey School of Business. The PMI is provided in two formats: unadjusted and seasonally adjusted. It shows responses to one question: ""Were your purchases last month in dollars higher, the same, or lower than the previous month?"" A figure above 50 shows an increase while below 50 shows a decrease. The Ivey Purchasing Managers Index is often referred to as the Purchasing Managers Index, or PMI and is sponsored by the Richard Ivey School of Business and the Purchasing Management Association of Canada (PMAC). The PMI includes both the public and private sectors and is based on month end data Ivey PMI panel members indicate whether their organizations activity is higher than, the same as, or lower than the previous month across the following five categories: purchases, employment, inventories, supplier deliveries and prices.

IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index measures Americans' opinions and outlooks on the economy. The index is based on a nationwide survey of 900 adults and evaluates six-month economic outlook, personal financial outlook, confidence in federal economic policies. Reading above 50 indicates optimism, and below 50 indicates pessimism. This page provides the latest reported value for - United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on September of 2016.

A survey done by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month. Respondents to the survey answer quantitative and qualitative questions about their businesses' employment, job openings, recruitment, hires and separations. The JOLTS data is published monthly and by region and industry.

Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.
Federal Reserve Governor Randal Quarles - FOMC voting member Oct 2017 - Jan 2032. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:00
NZIER Business Confidence 2 quarter -70 -63
Medium
00:30
AIG Performance of Service Index Jun 31.6 31.5
Medium
01:30
Household Spending May -11.1% -11.8% -16.2%
Low
01:30
Average Cash Earnings May -0.7% -0.9% -2.1%
Low
05:35
30-Year JGB Auction Jul 0.529%; 2.84 0.612%; 3.92
Low
06:30
RBA Interest Rate Decision Jul 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
High
06:30
RBA Monetary Policy Statement
High
07:00
Leading Indicators May 77.7 79.5 79.3
Low
08:00
Industrial Production May -17.5% m/m; -25.0% y/y 11.0% m/m; -11.1% y/y 7.8% m/m; -19.3% y/y
Low
08:45
Trade Balance May -5.1bln -4.5bln -7.1bln
Low
09:00
Foreign Currency Reserves Jun 816.5bln 850.1bln
Low
09:30
Halifax House Price Index Jun -0.2% m/m; 2.6% y/y -0.8% m/m -0.1% m/m; 2.5% y/y
Low
10:00
Retail Sales May -10.7% m/m; -26.7% y/y 15.0% m/m; -17.0% y/y 24.3% m/m; -10.5% y/y
Low
10:00
European Commission Economic Forecasts
Medium
12:00
NFIB Small Business Index Jun 94.4
Low
15:00
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Low
16:00
Ivey Purchasing Managers Index Jun 39.1; 42.1 50.2 58.2; 62.9
Medium
16:00
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Jul 47.0 48.2 44.0
Low
16:00
JOLTs Job Openings May 4996K 4700K 5397K
Low
19:00
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Medium
19:00
FOMC Member Randal K. Quarles Speaks
Medium
Wednesday, 08 July 2020 

The value of all outstanding loans with Japanese banks. Bank lending is important because lending increases with increased business confidence and investment. It is particularly insightful for the Japanese economy because of the weakness that has plagued the Japanese banking sector. The headline number is for total loans and discounts and is a percentage change from the previous year.

Consumer Sentiment (or Consumer Confidence) measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion.

The Economy Watchers Survey asks business-cycle sensitive workers their thoughts on existing and future economic conditions, giving a detailed picture of economic trends in Japan . The survey is based on questionnaires from 'man on the street' sectors that are particularly vulnerable to business cycle turns. These segments of the economy include sectors such as retail, restaurant service and taxi driving. With this combined data the Japanese Eco Watchers report serves as both a consumer confidence indicator and a leading indicator for the rest of the economy. The report is usually released less than two weeks after the reporting month, thus its statistics are usually very timely. The headline number is released where 50 represents the center midpoint line of boom/bust sentiment.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

High unemployment translates into lower average wages and reduced consumer spending. As consumer spending is the majority of total expenditure, rising unemployment often leads to slow economic growth. In addition, high or rising unemployment puts downward pressure on interest rates and leads to a depreciating Franc.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

Measures the outstanding debt held by consumers. Consumer Credit levels coincide with the economy, rising during economic expansion and dropping during a recession. Growth in Consumer Credit means that consumers have higher spending ability, which can fuel economic growth. However, too much Consumer Debt can result in an economic slowdown in the long term if consumers become overburdened with debt, then either reducing consumption or passing debt on to the financers after bankruptcy. The headline value is the outstanding debt held by consumers.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:50
Current Account May 252.4bln; 262.7bln 710.0bln; 1088.2bln 821.1bln; 1176.8bln
Low
01:50
Bank Lending Jun 4.8% y/y; 5.1% y/y 5.0% y/y 6.2% y/y; 6.5% y/y
Low
02:30
Westpac Consumer Sentiment Jul 93.7; 6.3%
Low
07:00
Economy Watchers Survey Jun 15.5; 36.5 24.7; 24.1 38.8; 44.0
Low
07:45
Unemployment Rate Jun 3.2%; 3.4% 3.6%; 3.4% 3.3%; 3.2%
Low
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Jul -7195K -3200K 5654K
Medium
18:15
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Low
19:01
10-y Bond Auction Jul 0.832%; 2.26 0.653%; 2.62
Low
21:00
Consumer Credit May -70.2bln -15.2bln -18.3bln
Low
Thursday, 09 July 2020 

Gauge for costs of homes in the United Kingdom. The figure is based on surveyors' opinions on the state of the market, calculated as is the percent of surveyors reporting a rise in prices minus those reporting a fall. A rise in house prices indicates a strong housing market, which generally reflects a strong overall economy.

Japan machinery orders received from the private sector excluding volatile orders.

Measure of the money supply used by the Bank of Japan. The figure includes all currency in circulation plus all bank deposits. This indicator tends to be tracked closely with the total money supply. The figure focuses mostly on individual deposit accounts rather than institutional accounts, making it a more attractive money indicator than broad liquidity measures. The headline figure is the percentage change from the previous year.

The results of the ANZ Bank Business survey held among businesses nationwide.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods prices do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany 's Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe's largest economy and given Germany's export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Eurozone trades and extra-Eurozone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Eurozone countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Eurozone do impact the overall Eurozone trade balance. Given Germany's large share of Eurozone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.

Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.

The headline figure for trade balance is expressed in billions of Euros.

This is a report which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

Bonds with the longest maturity.

Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

The stock of unsold goods held by wholesalers. Wholesalers act as intermediaries between manufacturers or importers, and retailers. Wholesalers sell directly to retailers, who strive to act in accordance (ideally) with consumer demand. Consequently, high Wholesale Inventories indicate that unsold goods are piling up, suggesting that retailers are facing lagging consumer demand and unwilling to purchase goods. Conversely, declining Wholesale Inventories suggest retailers are buying more goods to meet strong or rising demand. Because Wholesale Inventories reflect the demand retailers have for their manufacturers' wares, the report offers an early indication of the potential strength of consumer spending.

Wholesale Inventories are reported in headlines as a percent change from the previous month.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:01
RICS House Price Balance Jun -32% -25% -15%
Low
01:50
Core Machinery Orders May -12.0% m/m; -17.7% y/y -5.2% m/m; -17.1% y/y 1.7% m/m; -16.3% y/y
Low
01:50
M2 Money Supply + CD Jun 5.1% y/y; 4.1% y/y 5.6% y/y; 4.4% y/y 7.2% y/y; 5.9% y/y
Low
03:00
ANZ Business Confidence Jul -34.4 -29.8
Medium
03:30
CPI Jun 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%
High
03:30
PPI Jun -3.7% -3.2% -3.0%
Medium
08:00
Trade Balance May 3.4bln; 3.6bln 6.6bln; 7.0bln 7.5bln; 7.1bln
Low
08:00
Prelim Machine Tool Orders Jun -52.8% -32.0%
Low
10:30
30-Year Bonds Auction Jul 1.673%; 1.17
Low
14:15
Housing Starts Jun 195.453K 185.0K 211.681K
Low
14:30
Building Permits May -17.1%
Low
14:30
Unemployment Claims Jul 1413K 1375K 1314K
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Jun 18760K 18950K 18062K
Medium
16:00
Wholesale Inventories May -1.2% -1.2% -1.2%
Low
16:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Jul 65bln 60bln 56bln
Low
18:00
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Low
19:01
30-y Bond Auction Jul 1.450%; 2.30 1.330%; 2.50
Low
Friday, 10 July 2020 

A Japanese index that measures the prices of goods created by firms at the producer and wholesaler level in Japan. The Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (CGPI) tracks changes in supply side prices within the Japanese economy. Changes in the CGPI often precede changes in the overall Consumer Price Index, as input values determine the overall retail values of the consumer goods. Thus, a large increase in the domestic CGPI will lead to a large increase in the overall CPI.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Measures the level of production of French industries. French Industrial Production tracks relative changes in the production of goods, excluding energy and food, whether they are sold domestically or abroad. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.

Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, and so can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator of the overall health of the French economy.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Italy. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Italian industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Tracks the number of the employed in the country. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures.

modern award usually defines a part-time employee as an employee who is engaged to work less than an average of 38 ordinary hours per week and whose hours of work are reasonably predictable, with a guaranteed minimum number of hours of work. Work is usually performed on regular days of the week. A part-time employee will usually be entitled to the same employment conditions as a full-time employee, but on a pro rata basis compared to the full-time hours (usually 38 per week) prescribed under the applicable industrial instrument.

The participation rate is the percentage of the total number of people of labour-force age (15 years and over) that is in the labour force (either working or looking for work). The data provided by Statistics Canada is monthly and deseasonalized; this eliminates the impact of seasonal variations and makes it possible to compare data throughout the year. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the CAD , while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the CAD.

Measures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Notes: The PPI records prices at various stages of production: raw goods, intermediate goods and finished goods. Though intermediate and crude goods price do provide insight for future inflationary pressure, it is the price of finished goods that generates most interest for market participants. The finished goods data is able to gauge price pressure before the goods reach the retail market.

The Core Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the change in the selling price of goods and services sold by producers, excluding food and energy. The PPI measures price change from the perspective of the seller. When producers pay more for goods and services, they are more likely to pass the higher costs to the consumer, so PPI is thought to be a leading indicator of consumer inflation.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

Leading Indicators is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy.

The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
01:50
Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index Jun -0.4% m/m; -2.7% y/y 0.4% m/m; -2.0% y/y
Low
08:00
CPI Jun 0.6% m/m; 0.9% y/y 0.6% m/m; 0.9% y/y
Low
08:00
Harmonized CPI Jun 0.7% m/m; 0.8% y/y 0.7% m/m; 0.8% y/y
Low
08:45
Industrial Production May -20.1% 15.2%
Low
10:00
Industrial Production May -19.1% m/m; -42.5% y/y 23.5% m/m; -32.5% y/y
Low
14:30
Unemployment Rate Jun 13.7% 12.5%
High
14:30
Employment Change Jun 289.6K 550.0K
High
14:30
Part Time Employment Change Jun 219.4K; 70.3K
Medium
14:30
Participation Rate Jun 61.4%
Low
14:30
PPI Jun 0.4% m/m; -0.8% y/y 0.4% m/m; -0.4% y/y
Medium
14:30
PPI Core Jun -0.1% m/m; 0.3% y/y 0.1% m/m; 0.5% y/y
Medium
15:30
Leading Indicators May 86.5; -2.9%
Low
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Jul 263
Low

No events found