Monday, 12 April 2021 

This is a report which measures the change in the total value of new orders placed with machine tool manufacturers.

The volume of loans granted in yuan during a month. The indicator's growth means stronger activity. The sharp increase of the indicator may triger tighter monetary policy.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

Andy Haldane is the Chief Economist at the Bank of England and also a voting member of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee since June 2014 until May 2017. He was acknowledged as being one amongst the world's 100 most influential people. His speeches are mainly focused on financial stability, monetary issues and market risks. All these topics may provide markets with a direction in the regulator’s situation assessment and its further actions.
BOE MPC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Indicator of the balance of opinions on the economic prospects of the Bank of Canada. Reflects sentiments regarding the outlook for the future of economic activity. May affect the Bank of Canada's opinion on the rate decision.

The decision to increase, decrease, or maintain the bank set interest rate. A decision to lower rates can spur economic growth while inciting inflationary pressures, whereas rate increases tend to slow down inflation but stymie growth. The Bank of Canada has an inflation target of 1-3%, and they change interest rates accordingly to meet that goal. The Bank of Canada's rate decision has significant influence on financial markets. Changes in rates have direct impact on interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages and bond rates. The BOC issues a statement with every rate announcement. Because the decision itself is usually highly anticipated, the wording of the BOC statement is usually as important if not even more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank. The statement contains the Bank's collective outlook on the economy as well as hints about future monetary policy while the change to interest rates is nothing more than a number. The statement provides clues on plans for the future. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voting member( March 2011 - today) Eric S. Rosengren to speak. FOMC members are responsible for setting the benchmark interest rate and their speeches are closely watched for indications on the future possible direction of monetary policy. His comments may determine a short-term positive or negative trend.
10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.

This is a report which measures the difference in value between the federal government's income and spending during the previous month.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
08:00
Prelim Machine Tool Orders Mar 36.7% 65.0%
Low
10:00
New Yuan Loans Mar 1360bln 2300bln 2730bln
Medium
11:00
Retail Sales Feb -5.2% m/m; -5.2% y/y 1.3% m/m; -5.4% y/y 3.0% m/m; -2.9% y/y
Low
13:00
MPC Member Andy Haldane Speaks
Medium
15:00
MPC Member Silvana Tenreyro Speaks
Medium
16:30
Overview of business prospects, according to the Bank of Canada 1 quarter 1.3 2.87
Medium
16:30
Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision 1 quarter 48 52
Low
19:00
FOMC Member Eric Rosengren Speaks
Low
19:01
10-y Bond Auction Apr 1.523%; 2.38 1.680%; 2.36
Low
20:00
Federal Budget Balance Mar -310.9bln -665.5bln -659.6bln
Low
Tuesday, 13 April 2021 

A monthly survey of 1,500 businesses conducted by the National Bank of New Zealand. The purpose is to measures the mood in regard to future economic expectations.

The BRC  Retail Sales Monitor is an accurate monthly measure of retail sales performance that acts as both a benchmark for participating retailers and as a key economic indicator.

The RSM measures changes in the actual value of retail sales based on figures supplied directly by participating members. Originally set up at the request of BRC members to benchmark their own business performance against the wider sector, the BRC  Retail Sales Monitor is an authoritative measure on the health of the UK retail sector and the wider economy.

Measure of the money supply used by the Bank of Japan. The figure includes all currency in circulation plus all bank deposits. This indicator tends to be tracked closely with the total money supply. The figure focuses mostly on individual deposit accounts rather than institutional accounts, making it a more attractive money indicator than broad liquidity measures. The headline figure is the percentage change from the previous year.

A survey of the current state of the business sector in Australia . Based on a survey of hundreds of small and large sized companies, the National Australia Bank delivers monthly comprehensive quarterly reports.

This comprehensive survey primarily provides insight into the state of the Australian economy and puts forth leading indicators that signal its future direction. Thus the survey's findings, if unexpected, have the power to move markets directly.

The National Australia Bank releases both a monthly and quarterly report. The quarterly report is more comprehensive, surveying around 1000 small to large non-farm firms. The quarterly report provides greater detail on the data as well as a short to mid-term outlook of Australia . Because of seasonal volatility and government protections the survey only excludes the farm sector.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. While GDP announcements generally conform to expectations, unanticipated changes in this metric can move markets.

Robust GDP growth signals a heightened level of economic activity and often a higher demand for the domestic currency. At the same time, economic expansion raises concerns about inflationary pressures which may lead monetary authorities to increase interest rates. Thus better than expected GDP figures are generally bullish for the Euro, while negative readings are generally bearish.

Technically, Gross Domestic Product is calculated in the following way:

GDP = C + I + G + (EX - IM)

where

C = private consumption, I = private investment, G = government expenditure, EX = exports of goods and services, IM = imports of goods and services.

French GDP figures, officially called Quarterly National Accounts, are released quarterly. The headline figures are annualized percentage changes in real and nominal GDP.

A measure of the manufacturing output of the energy sector, factories, and mines. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of UK industrial activity. Industry accounts for about a quarter of the overall GDP. Because industrial production accounts for most of the volatility in the GDP, foreknowledge of trends in manufacturing go a long way in forecasting UK output. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion, healthy for the Pound. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation. In times of inflation the Bank of England may raise interest rates to control growth.

The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output. It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product. A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.

The difference between imports and exports of goods. Visible Trade differentiates itself from Trade Balance because it does not record intangibles like services, only reporting on physical goods. Because Britain's economy is highly trade driven, Visible Trade data can give critical insight into developments in the economy and into foreign exchange rates.

Index demonstrates the situation in the construction sector; it shows output of products and business activity sizes in this sigment of economy.

The index tracks activity in services sector.

Measures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.

Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods' seasonally volatility.

Measures the per volume change in output from mining, quarrying, manufacturing, energy and construction sectors in Italy. Industrial production is significant as a short-term indicator of the strength of Italian industrial activity. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The report is only a preliminary estimate figure that does not move the markets much. The figure is released in headlines as a monthly percent change.

A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany 's economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.

Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months. Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.

Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic. For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.

A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany 's economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.

Unlike the Economic Sentiment Indicator which looks into the future direction of the economy, the Current Situation Indicator focuses on the results of the survey that relate to the current health of the German economy. Expert opinions on whether the current situation is improved, worsened, or unchanged are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses. A higher headline figure indicates a stronger economy and better business climate.

Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic. For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.

The Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about the economic situation. Eurozone ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment Assesses future economic expectations for the whole Eurozone. The results are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses. A higher headline figure indicates a positive expectation for Euro-zone economy.

Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic. For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.

Survey of small businesses which asks respondents to rate the relative level of economic conditions including labor markets, inventories and sales, capital spending, inflation, earnings and wages, and credit markets.

CPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI's set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.

CPI Excluding Food and Energy - United States

The CPI is also reported excluding food and energy; two of its most volatile components. These components are particularly sensitive to temporary economic factors like oil prices, natural disasters and seasonal affects. Consequently, CPI excluding Food and Energy provides a more stable figure, but at the cost of overlooking two significant sectors in the economy (together food and energy comprise nearly a quarter of the goods included in the CPI).

The figure is the monthly percent change in the index.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Esther George. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.
Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:00
NZIER Business Confidence 1 quarter -6 -16 -13
Medium
01:01
BRC Retail Sales Monitor Mar 9.5% 11.9% 20.3%
Low
01:50
M2 Money Supply + CD Mar 9.6% y/y; 8.0% y/y 9.6% y/y; 8.1% y/y 9.5% y/y; 8.0% y/y
Low
03:30
NAB Business Confidence Mar 18 18 15
Low
08:00
GDP Feb -2.2% m/m; -1.4% 3m/3m 0.5% m/m; -1.9% 3m/3m 0.4% m/m; -1.6% 3m/3m
Medium
08:00
Industrial Production Feb -1.8% m/m; -4.3% y/y 0.5% m/m; -4.5% y/y 1.0% m/m; -3.5% y/y
Medium
08:00
Manufacturing Production Feb -2.2% m/m; -5.0% y/y 0.5% m/m; -5.1% y/y 1.3% m/m; -4.2% y/y
Medium
08:00
Visible Trade Balance Feb -12.6bln -10.4bln -16.4bln
Medium
08:00
Construction Output Feb 0.0% m/m; -6.5% y/y 0.5% m/m; -1.9% y/y 1.6% m/m; -4.3% y/y
Low
08:00
Index of Services Feb -1.9% 3m/3m; -2.5% m/m -2.3% 3m/3m; 0.6% m/m -1.9% 3m/3m; 0.2% m/m
Low
08:00
Wholesale Price Index Mar 1.4% m/m; 2.3% y/y 0.6% m/m; 3.3% y/y 1.7% m/m; 4.4% y/y
Low
10:00
Industrial Production Feb 1.1% m/m; -2.1% y/y 0.7% m/m; -2.3% y/y 0.2% m/m; -0.6% y/y
Low
11:00
ZEW Economic Sentiment Apr 76.6 79.1 70.7
Medium
11:00
ZEW Current Situation Apr -61.0 -53.0 -48.8
Medium
11:00
ZEW Survey (Econ. Sentiment) Apr 74.0 77.2 66.3
Medium
12:00
NFIB Small Business Index Mar 95.8 98.2 98.2
Low
14:30
Consumer Price Index Mar 0.4% m/m; 1.7% y/y 0.5% m/m; 2.5% y/y 0.6% m/m; 2.6% y/y
High
14:30
Consumer Price Index Core Mar 0.1% m/m; 1.3% y/y 0.2% m/m; 1.5% y/y 0.3% m/m; 1.6% y/y
High
18:00
FOMC Member Esther George Speaks
Low
18:00
FOMC Member Patrick T. Harker Speaks
Low
19:01
30-y Bond Auction Apr 2.295%; 2.28 2.320%; 2.47
Low
21:15
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Medium
Wednesday, 14 April 2021 
The Visitor Arrivals released by the Statistics New Zealand measures the number of visitors to New Zealand. As the tourism industry dominates a large part of the total GDP, the visitor arrivals is an important indicator of the overall economic condition in New Zealand.

Japan machinery orders received from the private sector excluding volatile orders.

Consumer Sentiment (or Consumer Confidence) measures the level of confidence households have in economic performance. Generally rising consumer confidence acts as a precursor to higher consumer expenditures which drive economic expansion.

The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is the interest rate set by the Reserve Bank to meet the inflation target specified in the Policy Targets Agreement (PTA). The current PTA, signed in September 2012, defines price stability as annual increases in the Consumers Price Index (CPI) of between 1 and 3 per cent on average over the medium term, with a focus on keeping future average inflation near the 2 percent target midpoint.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) releases this statement in connection to its recent decision on short-term interest rates. Interest rates are a primary determinant of a currency's value and these statements are used by traders to determine future monetary policy decisions.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures.

Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Eurozone GDP. However, most variations in the GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production.

Yields are set by bond market investors, and therefore they can be used to decipher investors' outlook on future interest rates. The bid-to-cover ratio represents bond market liquidity and demand, which can be used to gauge investor confidence.

This index reflects import price change per month.

The actual inventories of crude oil, gasoline, and distillate, such as jet fuel, as reported on a weekly basis. The numbers are watched closely by the energy markets, and if the results differ greatly from the expected inventory levels, the market can react strongly. The inventory data can be skewed by holidays and seasonal factors. Weekly data can be unreliable and should be viewed as a part of longer-term trends, so a four-week moving average may be more useful.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Fed Chair Feb 2018 - Feb 2022. Fed Governor May 2012 - Jan 2028. The testimony usually comes in 2 parts: first he reads a prepared statement (a text version is made available on the Fed's website at the start), then the committee will hold a question and answer session. Since the questions are not known beforehand they can make for some unscripted moments that lead to heavy market volatility. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the nation's currency value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Report on current economic conditions in each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts covering the entire US. Regional Banks in the Federal Reserve System gather anecdotal information based on surveys of executives, economist and market participants. The Beige Book summarizes this data into a relatively short document, giving a picture of economic trends and challenges faced by different parts of the nation.

In addition to providing useful information on the economy, the report is also a window into how FOMC members may vote at the next interest rate policy meeting. Because each report is based on anecdotal information as much as statistics, it is subjective and may reflect opinions of district governors. As the only comprehensive report made available to the public, the Beige Book provides a rare opportunity for markets to better understand the Federal Reserve and its views on the economy.

John C. Williams is President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:45
Visitor Arrivals Feb -7.7% -2.8%
Low
01:50
Core Machinery Orders Feb -4.5% m/m; 1.5% y/y 2.4% m/m; 2.3% y/y -8.5% m/m; -7.1% y/y
Low
02:30
Westpac Consumer Sentiment Apr 111.8; 2.6% 118.8; 6.2%
Low
04:00
Official Cash Rate Apr 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
High
04:00
RBNZ Rate Statement
High
08:15
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks
High
09:00
CPI Mar 1.3% 1.3% 1.3%
Low
11:00
Industrial Production Feb 0.8% m/m; 0.1% y/y -1.2% m/m; -0.9% y/y -1.0% m/m; -1.6% y/y
Low
11:30
30-y Bond Auction Apr 0.21%; 1.2 0.22%; 1.3
Low
14:30
Import price index Mar 1.3% m/m; 3.0% y/y 1.0% m/m; 6.3% y/y 1.2% m/m; 6.9% y/y
Low
16:30
Crude Oil Inventories Apr -3522K -2400K -5890K
Medium
18:00
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell Speaks
High
20:00
Beige Book
Low
20:30
FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks
Medium
22:00
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Medium
Thursday, 15 April 2021 
Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Robert Kaplan. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

Measures the price change of food and food services purchased by households. Higher food prices can result in economic slowdown because less disposable income will be used for non-food expenditures. Higher food prices can also result in inflation and signal future monetary action.

Higher domestic food prices may also suggest higher food prices internationally. New Zealand 's economy is largely based on producing and exporting agricultural goods and food products. Therefore, the Food Price Index can reflect demand for New Zealand products and for the New Zealand dollar. A higher reading may suggest a strengthening of the Dollar as foreigners pay relatively more for New Zealand 's exports.

The headline number is the percentage change in the index from the previous month.

The percent by which, according to consumers expectations, the prices for goods and services will change over the next 12 months.

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will hold a press conference about monetary policies in Tokyo. Mr Kuroda exercises general control over the Bank's business. He is in charge of the Internal Auditors' Office.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

Tracks the number of the employed in Australia . The figure appears in the monthly Labour Force Survey conducted by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. A surge in new employment suggests higher spending potential and budding inflation pressures, which the RBA often counters with rate increases.

The headline figure is the annualized percentage change in employed workers.

Modern award usually defines a part-time employee as an employee who is engaged to work less than an average of 38 ordinary hours per week and whose hours of work are reasonably predictable, with a guaranteed minimum number of hours of work. Work is usually performed on regular days of the week. A part-time employee will usually be entitled to the same employment conditions as a full-time employee, but on a pro rata basis compared to the full-time hours (usually 38 per week) prescribed under the applicable industrial instrument.

A measure of the active portion of an economy's labor force. The participation rate refers to the number of people who are either employed or are actively looking for work. The number of people who are no longer actively searching for work would not be included in the participation rate. During an economic recession, many workers often get discouraged and stop looking for employment, as a result, the participation rate decreases.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in Germany , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical German household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

The German CPI is significant as one of the primary gauges of inflation. As the largest Eurozone economy, inflation in Germany will contribute significantly to inflation in the Eurozone and the behavior of the European Central Bank. High or rising inflation acts as a signal to the ECB to raise interest rates, an action which will result in the strengthening of the Euro. The headline figure for CPI is the percentage change in monthly and annualized percentage term.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services in a specified period of time. The HICP measures changes of the average price level for goods and services that households consume (the fixed consumer basket). HICP is pure price index. It does not reflect the changes in buying or consumption patterns, brands, and does not reflect the effect of outlet and service provider substitution.

Assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase the same set of basic consumer items.

The Gross Domestic Product is a comprehensive measure of an overall production and consumption of goods and services. GDP serves as one of the primary measures of overall economic well-being. GDP announcements generally conform to expectations as the number comes out after most production figures that lead to overall GDP have already been released. Although releases that are out of line with expectations are rare, unanticipated GDP growth can move markets simply because of its significance as an economic indicator.

As part of its mission to maintain monetary stability and financial stability, the Bank needs to understand trends and developments in credit conditions. This survey for bank and non-bank lenders is an input to this work. Lenders are asked about the past three months and the coming three months. The survey covers secured and unsecured lending to households and small businesses; and lending to non-financial corporations, and to non-bank financial firms.

10-y Bond Auction is a leading market demand and profitability indicator. Profit falls compared to the previous auctions generally have a favourable influence on the currency.
Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity. ADP analyzes payroll data from more than 2 million workers to derive employment growth estimations.

CManufacturing Shipments - also known as "shipments of goods of own manufacture" - report the production of goods produced by Canadian establishments in the "Manufacturing Sector (NAICS 31-33)". It measures the Dollar value, not the quantity of manufactured goods produced.

An aggregated measure of the sales of retail goods over a stated time period, typically based on a data sampling that is extrapolated to model an entire country. In the U.S., the retail sales report is a monthly economic indicator compiled and released by the Census Bureau and the Department of Commerce. The report covers the previous month, and is released about two weeks after the month-end. Comparisons are made against historical data; year-over-year comparisons are the most-reported metric because they account for the seasonality of consumer-based retail.

It is a survey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions. Conducted since 1968, the "Philly Fed" survey is an established report, valued for its timeliness, scope of coverage and tendency to forecast developments in the market moving ISM Manufacturing figure.

Higher Philadelphia Fed Survey figures indicate a positive outlook from manufacturers suggesting increased production. Higher production contributes to economic growth, which is generally bullish for the dollar.

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the centerline point.

  Survey assessing business conditions and expectations of manufacturing executives in New York . Though the survey is relatively new and New York has a considerably small number of manufacturers, the report has shown a promising correlation to the Philadelphia Fed Index and the market moving ISM Manufacturing Survey. Thus Empire serves as a useful earlier indicator of overall manufacturing in the US .

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the breakeven point. A high figure is bullish for the dollar, indicating positive business sentiment conducive to growth in production. A low or negative number signals poor business conditions.

The indicator shows the number of unemployed people in the USA.

Continuing claims refers to unemployed workers that qualify for benefits under unemployment insurance. In order to be included in continuing claims, the person must have been covered by unemployment insurance and be currently receiving benefits. Data on unemployment claims is published by the Department of Labor on a weekly basis, allowing for frequent updates on the levels of unemployment.

Capacity Utilization measures the extent to which US manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens. High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.

Measures changes in the volume of output produced by the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors in the USA. Because industrial production is a measure of output volume rather than dollar value, the figure is not distorted by inflation and is considered a more "pure" indicator for US industry. Though industrial production only accounts for a relatively small portion of the GDP, it accounts for most of the volatility in GDP and is considered highly sensitive to changes in interest rate and consumer demand. Therefore understanding trends in this figure are important to forecasting the GDP. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The figure varies significantly month to month due to the fact that seasonal and weather related factors often alter factory production and utility demand. Because of this volatility, the report has limited market impact.

The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months.

The UK Manufacturing Production index is compiled by the National Statistics Office and measures the level of manufacturing output. It is an important indicator since it measures growth in the country’s manufacturing industry which is a major component of Gross Domestic Product. A low reading is considered bearish for the Sterling.

Leading Indicators is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy.

Unsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.

Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow down, retailers' inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.

Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .

While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories' lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.

A timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of homebuilders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.

As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect 'big ticket' items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month. The NAHB Housing Market Index divides the Single-Family Sales data into three categories: Present, Next 6 Months and Prospective Buyers Traffic.

Ms. Maechler joins the SNB’s board, which is led by Thomas Jordan.

Weekly report about natural gas storage change in the USA.

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic - FOMC voting member 2018. Federal Reserve FOMC members vote on where to set the nation's key interest rates and their public engagements are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy. More hawkish than expected is good for currency.

Measures Capital Flow into U.S. Denominated Assets. Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds and money market funds to and from the United States. The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.

A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the US dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month's trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country.

Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:05
FOMC Member Robert Kaplan Speaks
Low
00:45
Food Price Mar -0.9% 0.0%
Low
03:00
Consumer Inflation Expectation Apr 4.1% 4.2% 3.2%
Medium
03:00
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda Speaks
High
03:30
Unemployment Rate Mar 5.8% 5.7% 5.6%
High
03:30
Employment Change Mar 88.7K 35.2K 70.7K
High
03:30
Part Time Employment Change Mar 89.1K; -0.4K 10.0K; 10.0K -20.8K; 91.5K
Medium
03:30
Participation Rate Mar 66.1% 66.1% 66.3%
Low
08:00
CPI Mar 0.5% m/m; 1.7% y/y 0.5% m/m; 1.7% y/y 0.5% m/m; 1.7% y/y
Low
08:00
Harmonized CPI Mar 0.5% m/m; 2.0% y/y 0.5% m/m; 2.0% y/y 0.5% m/m; 2.0% y/y
Low
08:45
Consumer Price Index Mar 0.6% m/m; 1.1% y/y 0.6% m/m; 1.1% y/y
Low
10:00
Gross Domestic Product Mar 0.3% m/m; 0.8% y/y 0.3% m/m; 0.8% y/y
Low
10:30
BoE Credit Conditions Survey
Medium
10:30
10-y Bond Auction Apr 0.351%; 1.59
Low
14:30
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Mar -100.8K -25.0K
Low
14:30
Manufacturing Shipments Feb 3.1% -1.1%
Low
14:30
Retail Sales Mar -3.0% m/m; -2.7% m/m 5.8% m/m; 5.1% m/m
High
14:30
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Apr 51.8 41.0
Medium
14:30
NY Fed Empire State manufacturing index Apr 17.4 19.3
Low
14:30
Unemployment Claims Apr 744K 703K
Medium
14:30
Continuing Claims Apr 3734K 3700K
Medium
15:15
Capacity Utilization Mar 73.8% 75.6%
Medium
15:15
Industrial Production Mar -2.2% 2.7%
Medium
15:15
Manufacturing Production Mar -3.1% 4.0%
Low
15:30
Leading Indicators Feb 78.6; -0.4%
Low
16:00
Business Inventories Feb 0.3% 0.5%
Low
16:00
NAHB Housing Market Index Apr 82 84
Low
16:00
SNB Member of the Governing Board Andrea Maechler Speaks
Medium
16:30
EIA Natural Gas Storage Change Apr 20bln 67bln
Low
17:30
FOMC Member Raphael W. Bostic Speaks
Medium
22:00
TICS Feb 90.8bln 120.5bln
Low
Friday, 16 April 2021 

Индикатор активности в производстве. Аналог Manufacturing PMI. Показывает улучшение (>50) или ухудшение (<50) ситуации в сравнении с предыдущим месяцем. Рост показателя либо превышение прогноза благоприятны для валюты.

An inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price," "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP".

An inflation-adjusted measure that reflects the value of all goods and services produced in a given year, expressed in base-year prices. Often referred to as "constant-price," "inflation-corrected" GDP or "constant dollar GDP".

Fixed asset investment, or FAI, is a measure of capital spending. It refers to any investment within the measurement period in physical assets, such as real estate infrastructure, machinery, etc. that are held for more than one year. FAI can be a good indicator for how much investment is occurring in a country or region, but it is not a direct contributor to GDP.

Measures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector.

Gauge for goods sold at retail outlets in the past month. Retail Sales is a leading indicator for the economy. Rising consumer spending fuels economic growth, confirms signals from consumer confidence, and may spark inflationary pressures.

The headline figure is expressed as the percentage change from the same month last year.

The percentage of individuals in the labor force who are without a job but actively seeking one. A higher Unemployment Rate is generally a drain on the economy. Not only does it mean that resources are not being fully utilized, but it also results in lower consumer spending as there are fewer workers receiving paychecks.

Note: The unemployment rate generally moves slowly, so changes of only a few tenths of a percent are still considered significant. Also note that the unemployment rate does not account for discouraged workers. Therefore, in an economically depressed environment, such as that which occurred in Cold War era East Germany, the Unemployment Rate may not accurately reflect the extent of problems.

NBS Press Conference is a media event in which newsmakers invite journalists to hear them speak and, most often, ask questions. Answers can cause a stir in the market.

Tracks inflation in producer and import prices in Switzerland . The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous period.

Changes in this index will generally precede changes in the consumer price index, as higher import costs and producer prices tend to eventually be passed to consumers. As with any indicator of inflation, increases in producer and import prices tend to act as an appreciating weight for the Swiss franc because inflationary pressures are almost always met with interest rate increases from the Swiss central bank.

The figure represents changes in the combined producer and import price index, calculated from changes in producer prices and import prices, giving appropriate weight to the proportion of domestic and imported goods.

A country's trade balance reflects the difference between exports and imports of goods and services. The trade balance is one of the biggest components of the Balance of Payment, giving valuable insight into pressures on country's currency.

Surpluses and Deficits
A positive Trade Balance (surplus) indicates that exports are greater than imports. When imports exceed exports, the country experiences a trade deficit. Because foreign goods are usually purchased using foreign currency, trade deficits usually reflect currency leaking out of the country. Such currency outflows may lead to a natural depreciation unless countered by comparable capital inflows (inflows in the form of investments, FDI - where foreigners investing in local equity, bond or real estates markets). At a bare minimum, deficits fundamentally weigh down the value of the currency.

Ramifications of Trade Balance on Markets
There are a number of factors that work to diminish the market impact of Trade Balance upon immediate release. The report is not very timely, coming some time after the reporting period. Developments in many of the figure's components are also typically anticipated well beforehand. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month or quarter, any significant changes in the Trade Balance should plausibly have already been felt during that period - and not during the release of data.

However, because of the overall significance of Trade Balance data in forecasting trends in the Forex Market, the release has historically been one of the most important reports out of the any country.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Eurozone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Eurozone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected, the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

  The Current Account summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the country. The report acts as a line-item record of how the domestic economy interacts with rest of the world. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country's Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis - tracking good and services.

Sir Jon Cunliffe became Deputy Governor for Financial Stability on 1 November 2013. Jon is a member of the Bank’s Financial Policy and Monetary Policy Committees, the Bank’s Court of Directors and the Prudential Regulation Authority Board. His speeches may include hints of regulation changes or the assessment of economic condition.

Reflects the rate of growth in housing construction. Housing Starts act as an indicator measuring the strength of Canada's construction sector and housing market. Economists also use the figure as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole due to Housing Starts' sensitivity to changes in the business cycle. Housing Starts slow at the onset of a recession and quickly grow at the beginning of an economic boom; consequently, a high Housing Starts figure forecasts strong economic growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in new home starts.

Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds, and money market funds to and from Canada.

The value of sales made by Canadian wholesalers. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption and the economy. The headline figure reports the monthly percentage change in Wholesale Sales, seasonally adjusted to account for variations in demand due to seasonal cycles.

These sectors are farm products, food, beverages, and tobacco products, personal and household goods, automotive products, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment etc.

The number of new building projects authorized for construction. The figure is widely used as an indicator for developments in the housing market, since receiving a permit to build is the first step in the construction process. Thus growth in Building Permits reflects growth in the construction sector. Also, due to the high outlays needed for construction projects, an increase in Building Permits suggests corporate and consumer optimism. Additionally, because leading indicators for the housing market respond quickly to changes in the business cycle, the Building Permit figure can act as a leading indicator for the economy as a whole.

The headline is the seasonally adjusted percentage change in Building Permits from the previous month.

Gauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.

Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. The University of Michigan figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.

The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index released by the University of Michigan is a survey of personal consumer confidence in economic activity. It shows a picture of whether or not consumers are willing to spend money. Generally speaking, a high reading anticipates positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The Baker Hughes rig count is an important business barometer for the oil drilling industry. When drilling rigs are active they consume products and services produced by the oil service industry. The active rig count acts as a leading indicator of demand for oil products.
Time
Country
Macroeconomic Indices Period Previous Reading Forecast Actual Reading Importance
00:30
Business NZ Manufacturing Index Mar 53.4
Medium
04:00
Real GDP 1 quarter 2.6% q/q; 6.5% y/y ; 18.3% y/y
High
04:00
Real GDP (YTD) 1 quarter 2.3%
High
04:00
Fixed Asset Investment Mar 35.0% 27.0%
Medium
04:00
Industrial production Mar 35.1% y/y; 35.1% y/y 18.0% y/y
Medium
04:00
Retail Sales Mar 33.8% y/y; 33.8% y/y 28.0% y/y
Low
04:00
Unemployment Rate Mar 5.5% 5.4%
Low
04:00
NBS Press Conference
Medium
08:30
Producer & Import Prices Mar 0.0% m/m; -1.1% y/y 0.2% m/m; -0.9% y/y
Low
10:00
Trade Balance Feb 1.59bln
Low
11:00
Consumer Price Index Mar 1.3% 1.3%
Low
11:00
Consumer Price Index Core Mar 0.9% 0.9%
Low
11:00
Current Account (sa) Feb 24.2bln; 6.3bln 25.4bln; 24.0bln
Low
11:00
BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks
Medium
14:15
Housing Starts Mar 245.922K 254.0K
Low
14:30
Foreign Securities Purchases Feb 1.27bln
Low
14:30
Wholesale Sales Feb 4.0% -0.5%
Low
14:30
Building Permits Mar 1682K; -10.8% 1750K; -0.8%
Medium
14:30
Housing Starts Mar 1421K; -10.3% 1620K; -0.2%
Medium
16:00
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index Apr 84.9 88.9
Medium
16:00
UoM Inflation Expectations Apr 3.1%; 2.8%
Low
19:00
Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count Apr 432
Low

No events found